How Israel’s Upcoming Elections Ripple Across the Middle East

CAIRO: Israel’s upcoming elections are drawing intense scrutiny from its regional neighbors, who recognize that the outcome will carry profound implications far beyond its borders.

At his Likud party’s campaign launch this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his claim that he “has changed the face of the Middle East” and pledged to continue shaping the region according to Israel’s interests.

Netanyahu has remained steadfast in maintaining Israeli military presence in parts of neighboring Lebanon and Syria, while his ministers openly discuss plans to relocate Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza — a strategy analysts warn could trigger a major refugee crisis for Jordan and Egypt and undermine prospects for a viable Palestinian state.

Opinion polls suggest the October 27 elections are expected to be tightly contested. Netanyahu’s bloc, bolstered by far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, faces a strong challenge from centrist Gadi Eisenkot and his coalition.

AFP correspondents across the region examine how various countries are monitoring the race:

JORDAN

Though Netanyahu has not officially annexed the West Bank, analysts note that de facto annexation is advancing, as his government — the most right-wing in Israel’s history — accelerates the approval of settlements at an unprecedented pace.

Jordanian officials express growing concern over calls by some Israeli leaders to transfer over three million Palestinians across the Jordan River, a move they view as an “existential threat” to the Hashemite kingdom. Oraib Rantawi, founder of Amman’s Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, warns that Jordan and Israel are heading toward a dangerous confrontation if such policies persist.

Speaking at the United Nations on Tuesday, King Abdullah II condemned what he described as the Israeli government’s “expansionist appetite,” labeling it a regional threat.

“In the medium and long term, Jordan and Israel are on a collision course,” Rantawi cautioned, as right-wing factions press to shift responsibility for managing Palestinian populations onto Amman.

Despite tensions, Jordan continues limited political engagement with Israel, a stance political observers believe is unlikely to shift significantly regardless of who wins the election.

EGYPT

Egypt, long wary of Israeli efforts to push Palestinians into its territory, has maintained a cautious “cold peace” since recognizing Israel in 1978. While Cairo collaborates closely with Israel on security matters, bilateral ties have come under strain due to repeated attempts by Israeli officials to encourage what they term “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians to Egypt.

Former ambassador El-Sayed Shalaby suggested that the best-case outcome would be a government “less ideologically driven and more focused on security,” potentially easing tensions around Gaza without altering core Israeli policies.

When asked by AFP, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty affirmed that Egypt “will deal with any government that is coming.” He also criticized Netanyahu for undermining a ceasefire agreement brokered by Egypt during the Trump administration.

LEBANON

Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon have resulted in over 4,300 deaths and displaced roughly 329,000 people since March, according to Lebanese authorities. Meanwhile, Beirut continues delicate negotiations with Israel regarding the eventual disarmament of Hezbollah.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri recently accused Israel of treating southern Lebanon, along with its civilian population and infrastructure, as “a ballot box soaked in blood” in the lead-up to the vote.

“We are not optimistic,” said a former Lebanese minister and diplomat speaking anonymously to AFP. “The style may change… perhaps Eisenknot speaks less radically, but on the ground, the policy will remain unchanged. The far right still holds power.”

In an exclusive interview with AFP, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun acknowledged the elections as an internal Israeli matter but posed a pointed question:
“Do they [Israelis] want stability, security, and no wars on their border—or not?”

SYRIA

Since the fall of longtime leader Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes inside Syria, deployed troops into a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the occupied Golan Heights, and carried out frequent cross-border raids.

A Syrian diplomatic source told AFP that Damascus is less concerned with whether the elections will fundamentally alter regional dynamics, and more interested in whether the next Israeli government will adopt a more restrained approach and heed U.S. guidance.

“A centrist leadership—or even a right-wing government not dominated by Netanyahu—might show less interest in leveraging escalation for domestic political gain,” the source said, adding that either scenario could open doors to incremental security arrangements.

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