Iran Balances Strategic Escalation as US Midterms Approach

The war with Iran “will end immediately after the U.S. midterm election because they cannot endure it longer,” President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday during his speech at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas. He framed the November 7 vote as “one of the most important elections of your lives” and reiterated his defense of U.S. military operations against Iran.

Trump maintained his assertion that military strikes were initiated to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear capabilities and pledged to lower oil prices following the “win” for the United States. However, even if these claims are accepted, rising fuel costs are anticipated to adversely affect Republican electoral prospects in the midterms. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices surged to over $100 per barrel, with the conflict intensifying as the U.S. targeted Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for Tehran’s attack on a U.S. warship.

Iran’s Strategic Restraint

“Iran continues to view escalation as a calculated tool for coercion rather than an objective in itself,” explained Mohammad Ghaedi, a Middle East specialist at George Washington University. “The regime seeks to impose costs on the U.S. without triggering a full-scale war,” he noted, adding that missile launches against U.S. naval vessels have remained limited in scale.

How much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz?

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“Iran aims to demonstrate its ability to threaten U.S. forces and disrupt regional maritime activity while keeping tensions below levels that might prompt a disproportionate American response,” Ghaedi said.

Pursuing the Islamabad Agreement

Tehran’s preferred path involves reviving the June Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad, which temporarily halted major hostilities. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, President Pezeshkian stated Iran would rejoin if the U.S. reaffirmed the accord. However, this outcome now appears improbable, as the initial provision requires Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon—an outcome unlikely before Israel’s upcoming elections, Ghaedi explained.

Trump Under Pressure to Limit Escalation

With Israel set to vote on October 27 and the U.S. midterms imminent, Tehran anticipates meaningful progress only after these votes. On September 2, Reuters reported that Trump’s advisors urged restraint, citing electoral risks for Republicans. The White House is reportedly evaluating expanded military operations post-election.

Is the lull in fighting between Iran and the US over?

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Ghaedi noted that Tehran sees little benefit in escalating further, especially if Democrats gain congressional control and attempt to constrain Trump’s foreign policy. A shift in U.S. leadership could heighten Tehran’s caution to avoid a “rally-’round-the-flag” effect benefiting Trump.

Economic Pressure as Lever

While military developments remain unpredictable, the U.S. is likely to intensify economic sanctions. Iranian economist Ahmad Alavi, based in Sweden, cautioned that economic pressure alone may fail. If the Islamic Republic interprets sanctions as an attempt to destabilize rather than incentivize cooperation, it might escalate militarily instead of yielding concessions, he argued.

“Concessions could come if Tehran perceives genuine prospects for relief and secure negotiation channels,” Alavi added.

Gulf States Pursue Maritime De-escalation

Oman and other Gulf nations are seeking diplomatic resolutions for maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign ministers plan discussions with Iran in Salalah to broker temporary shipping protections, though approval from Washington is likely required due to prolonged U.S. naval blockades of Iranian waters.

Is Iran set to become an economic outcast?

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Iran Maintains Defiant Rhetoric

Despite ongoing conflict, Iranian officials continue to express unwavering resolve. Deputy parliament speaker Ali Nikzad declared on September 9, “We will persist in the war until final victory.” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi demanded complete U.S. cessation of hostilities on September 8, warning of “a more comprehensive Iranian response” if attacks persist. On September 10, the IRGC released footage purporting to show capture of a U.S. Anduril Dive-LD unmanned underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz during a classified mine-clearing mission.

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