Israel Nears Election With Neither Netanyahu Bloc Nor Opposition Poised to Secure Majority

With only two weeks remaining before Israel’s election, the political landscape remains highly uncertain, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears no closer to securing a decisive advantage.

Israel does not elect its prime minister directly. Instead, the prime minister must form a coalition that commands a majority of the 120 seats in the Knesset. This means Netanyahu’s prospects of staying in power are tied closely to the performance of his smaller right-wing allies in the upcoming vote.

Of the 38 parties contesting the election, a maximum of 15 are expected to cross the 3.25% threshold required to win Knesset seats. These include three or four right-wing parties led by Netanyahu’s Likud; four or five center-left parties headed by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list; two Haredi Orthodox parties; and two predominantly Arab parties.

Unfortunately for Netanyahu, key right-wing parties failed to unify as he had hoped. Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, did not merge with Otzma Yehudit under Itamar Ben-Gvir nor with Amcha Yisrael led by retired Brig.-Gen. Ofer Winter.

This fragmentation leaves both Smotrich’s party and Winter’s party hovering near the electoral threshold, increasing the likelihood that one or both could fall short and lose all representation—wasting crucial votes that might have strengthened Netanyahu’s bloc. Given that crossing the threshold requires roughly four Knesset seats, the margin for error is slim.

Netanyahu’s political magic faces test as right-wing parties remain divided

“Netanyahu has been considered Israel’s political magician for many years — the man who managed in 2022 to bring Ben-Gvir and Smotrich together on a joint list,” said Dr. Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Before that election, Netanyahu publicly urged the two factions to merge, warning that the right-wing bloc “can’t take the risk” of either falling below the threshold. Days later, the two leaders reached an agreement following a direct appeal from Netanyahu.

“We haven’t seen that happen in this election,” Talshir continued. “Netanyahu is entering this race in the weakest position we’ve seen him in over the past decade.”

The failure of right-wing parties to unite stems from a mix of personal grievances and ideological divides. Winter has stressed the importance of bringing fresh faces into politics, arguing that leaders associated with the failures preceding Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack should step aside. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, by contrast, remain separated by personal rivalries and differing visions for appealing to Israel’s ultranationalist base.

Electoral threshold threatens Netanyahu’s path to 61 seats

Pollster Shmuel Rosner warns that Winter’s new party risks missing the threshold. With support at around four to five seats, it still faces the common challenge among new parties—declining momentum as initial enthusiasm fades. Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, polling at approximately five to six seats, also remains vulnerable, having frequently trailed the threshold in recent months.

“The party lineup poses greater challenges for Netanyahu than for his opponents,” Rosner observed. “On the anti-Netanyahu side, no party is currently at risk of falling below the threshold. But within the pro-Netanyahu camp, at least one—and possibly two—parties hover in danger.”

Even assuming all parties clear the threshold, recent polling indicates Netanyahu remains far from the 61 seats needed to form a government. His bloc currently stands at roughly 52 to 53 seats.

Arab parties emerge as potential kingmakers amid election deadlock

Despite these challenges, the outlook is not entirely grim for Netanyahu. The opposition-aligned bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, is also unlikely to reach 61 seats. In fact, its support has slipped recently—from about 58 or 59 seats down to approximately 52 to 53.

Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot speaks during the “Game-Changing Generation” National Youth Conference at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem, October 11, 2026. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Talshir notes that the opposition’s waning numbers don’t necessarily reflect declining backing for the bloc overall. Shifts across the broader electoral landscape play a role. Three Arab parties recently merged to form a unified Joint List, bolstering the Arab political movement and reducing the risk of any single faction falling below the threshold. The merger is also expected to boost Arab voter turnout.

Both major coalitions have ruled out bringing Arab parties into government. However, the anti-Netanyahu camp holds a stronger position here, given its closer alignment with moderate Arab interests.

Joint List and Ra’am are projected to capture roughly 14 seats. Meanwhile, the leader of Balad—one of the parties within the Joint List—withdrew from the race late last month after the Supreme Court indicated his candidacy would be disqualified. The full impact of his withdrawal is unclear, though some analysts believe it could galvanize Arab voters to cast protest ballots against those who blocked his participation.

Netanyahu’s prospective coalition partners strongly oppose including any Arab parties and have framed such a possibility as a rallying cry against the opposition. The last government—formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021—broke precedent by incorporating Ra’am into its coalition to secure a majority.

Yet senior figures in today’s opposition have vowed not to repeat that approach. Emotions remain tense among the Jewish public three years after the Hamas raids, and leaders like Eisenkot, Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman have explicitly rejected any future partnership with Arab parties.

Still, Talshir suggests these pledges could prove fragile under pressure. Should the election produce another deadlock, she envisions a scenario where Eisenkot collaborates with Ra’am to establish a minority government—one where Ra’am supports an Eisenkot-led administration externally, without joining the coalition, in order to block Netanyahu from retaining power.

In an August interview with Channel 12, Abbas stated that his primary goal was replacing Netanyahu’s government. More recently, Joint List chairman Youssef Jabareen affirmed his party’s willingness to back any government committed to ending Netanyahu’s rule, subject to unspecified conditions.

Leader of the Arab Israeli party Ra’am (United Arab List), Mansour Abbas speaks during an election campaign event, ahead of Israel’s legislative elections, in the Arab town of Ka’abiyye-Tabbash-Hajajre in Israel’s Northern District on September 26, 2026.

Should neither side succeed in assembling a coalition, Israel risks facing yet another election—echoing the prolonged political stalemate that began in 2019 and culminated in five successive votes, all while Netanyahu continued serving as caretaker prime minister.

“Based on current trends and polling data, there’s very little chance either bloc will manage to reach 61 seats,” Rosner said.

Smaller parties could determine Israel’s next governing coalition

Among the most unpredictable elements are several small parties currently below the electoral threshold yet still actively campaigning. Rosner highlights three in particular: the Reservists-Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha; a Haredi-focused party headed by Moti Leitner; and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White.

According to Rosner, the most influential of these is the Hendel-Zelekha party, which sits right on the edge of the threshold and could either cross it or fall short by as many as four seats. “It’s on the brink,” he said.

Its political positioning remains ambiguous. “It doesn’t clearly state what it plans to do once elected, and it brings together individuals with divergent agendas,” Rosner noted. Nevertheless, he believes it would likely align more easily with the opposition bloc due to ongoing tensions with the Haredi parties over military service—an issue deeply felt by military reservists who resent ultra-Orthodox exemptions.

Once a dominant force in the opposition, Gantz’s Blue and White has seen its popularity erode since Gantz joined Netanyahu’s government. Today, it polls at around 1%, well below the threshold. Should it cross the line, Gantz has indicated openness to forming a unity government that includes both Netanyahu and opposition figures.

Meanwhile, the newly launched Haredi party HaTzibbur HaHaredi mirrors Blue and White in low poll numbers. Though it hasn’t specified which bloc it would join, it could siphon one or two seats from existing ultra-Orthodox parties—potentially weakening Netanyahu’s coalition.

Ultimately, success may hinge less on shifting voter allegiances and more on turnout. “The real challenge right now isn’t persuading voters to switch sides—it’s getting people to leave their houses and vote,” Rosner said. “And based on what we’re seeing, the harder test lies ahead for the right-wing bloc.”

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