Israel’s Election Arrives as Voters Reassess National Security

Israel’s forthcoming general election will take place on the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attacks, with the debates shaping the campaign closely tied to the wars that followed. Voters are divided over conscription in ultra-Orthodox communities, the economy’s exposure to conflict, and who should be held responsible for the Hamas-led assault.

Security has dominated Israeli public debate for nearly three years since the genocidal war in Gaza began, during which more than 73,000 Palestinians have been killed.

The conflict has also drawn Israel into exchanges of attacks with Houthi rebels in Yemen, strikes on neighbouring Syria and Lebanon, occupations of territory in both countries, and at least two major attacks on Iran jointly launched with the United States. Iran is widely regarded as Israel’s principal adversary.

For a public still reeling from the events of October 2023 and repeatedly warned by prominent figures of Israel’s imminent destruction, there has scarcely been a day when Israelis have not been reminded that their country remains at war. Politicians seeking votes have made national security the centre of their campaigns.

Ayala Panievsky, a lecturer in politics and journalism at City St George’s, University of London and the author of The New Censorship, said national security has always been a central concern for Israeli voters and is likely to remain so in this election, with other issues traditionally taking a back seat.

“Even when certain parties tried to shift the focus toward the economy or other issues, it did not work. National security is too existential in a country entangled in war and conflict, and the trauma of October 7 has only strengthened that reality,” Panievsky told Al Jazeera.

“To this day, Israelis do not feel safe from future attacks by Hamas or Hezbollah, or from a nuclear threat posed by Iran. None of these fronts ended in a victory for Israel. Despite the sweeping promises made by Trump and Netanyahu, none of these threats has been eliminated.”

A paradox of security

Despite widespread outrage over the genocide in Gaza and Israel’s unilateral strikes against regional states, many believe the country has never been more secure.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned since the 1990s that Iran was close to acquiring nuclear weapons. Today, however, some analysts argue that Iran’s economy and military have been badly depleted and are consumed by its conflict with the United States.

Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been ousted, Hezbollah is struggling to withstand Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, and Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely weakened. The Houthis in Yemen have made some gains along the Red Sea coast, but their attention is now focused on fighting government forces and launching rockets at Saudi cities rather than targeting Israel.

Some analysts note that although these groups still exist—and some have become stronger—they are preoccupied with domestic challenges or their own survival rather than plotting attacks on Israel.

“An objective military assessment would suggest that, overall, Israel is safer after nearly three years of war,” said Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London. “Hamas has been beaten, though not destroyed; the same applies to Hezbollah, while Iran is dealt with mainly by the United States. Israel also has forward buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.”

Yet these apparent gains have not translated into greater confidence among Israelis. Many now feel less secure than they did before October 7, 2023, a day that exposed the fallibility of the security and intelligence services long regarded as the pride of Israel’s political establishment.

An even more immediate danger lies closer to home. A rise in Israeli military operations since October 2023, combined with a more emboldened and violent settler movement, has turned the occupied West Bank into a tinderbox.

“In the West Bank, Israel has lost control of settlers who provoke Palestinians on a daily basis. I see a third Palestinian Intifada on the horizon, and once it begins, it may be difficult to contain,” Bregman said.

The political stakes

The two leading election contenders—Netanyahu and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot—continue to portray Israel as both victorious over its enemies and still threatened by them.

In July, Netanyahu pointed toward a “forever wars” scenario despite repeatedly boasting about Israeli military successes since October 2023.

“It’s never over. If you want to live in the Middle East—and in the world—you must be very strong,” he said.

Earlier this week, Netanyahu claimed that his leadership had transformed the Middle East’s political landscape. At the same time, he described the struggle as existential for Israel’s survival and asserted that he had “saved the State of Israel from destruction”.

As the fiercely contested election approaches, few opposition figures have challenged the threat narrative advanced by Netanyahu. Some argue that Hamas is rearming and preparing another attack, while others call for renewed strikes on Iran to curb Hezbollah’s resistance to Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon.

Lev Grinberg, a sociology professor at Ben Gurion University, told Al Jazeera that the election is centred on the security and diplomatic failures of the past three years.

“The question of whether Israelis feel secure is political, not simply a matter of Israel’s military capabilities. Israeli society is deeply divided between supporters of the current government coalition and those opposed to it,” he said.

Israeli media have extensively covered reports that Netanyahu received intelligence from the United Arab Emirates before the October 2023 Hamas-led attack. Both sides have strongly denied the allegation.

Netanyahu has also faced criticism for refusing to establish an independent inquiry into his own role in the failures preceding October 7 and for his long-standing approach to finances entering Gaza.

The election carries major stakes for both camps. Netanyahu may fear that defeat would intensify pressure surrounding his corruption case, while the opposition worries about the implications of an emboldened prime minister if he wins.

“After the approaching elections, the losing side will feel profoundly insecure. There is already an atmosphere of terror for the opposition,” Grinberg said.

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