President Claudia Sheinbaum during a daily morning briefing in Mexico City.
Mexico’s natural gas demand stands at approximately 9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). The country imports 6.5 bcfd via pipeline from the U.S., accounting for 75% of its needs. This reliance stems from the U.S.’s shale gas success, prompting Mexico to explore its own resources. A government commission recently released recommendations to boost domestic production, raising questions about their feasibility.
State-owned Pemex aims to increase local output to 4 bcfd by 2030—a significant step, though insufficient to eliminate U.S. imports. Mexico must expand production to reduce dependence on external supplies.
Mexico’s Power Expansion Strategy
The national plan includes $42 billion in investments to add 32 gigawatts (GW) of electricity capacity by 2030. Of this, 10 GW will come from five new combined-cycle gas plants, while the remainder will focus on renewables, targeting 38% renewable energy share by 2030—up from 24% today.
Gas Supply Challenges for New Plants
Mexico’s northern shale or tight sand basins hold 140 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of unconventional gas—significant but smaller than the Delaware basin’s 281 Tcf in the Permian region. Despite this potential, extraction faces hurdles. The government mandated strict aquifer protection measures, requiring independent monitoring for water integrity, environmental impact, and seismic activity. These requirements increase costs for Pemex, already burdened by massive debt.
Unconventional gas plays in Mexico.
Discovery Alert
| Basin | Status | Challenges |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos | Partially developed | Crime risks complicate investment |
| Sabinas-Burro-Picachos | Underdeveloped | Regulatory opposition in governing states |
Southern Basins: Environmental Concerns
The Tampico-Misantla basin contains 20 Tcf of gas and 35 billion barrels of oil, but its development is blocked due to population density and indigenous opposition. Fracking here risks depleting freshwater aquifers critical for drinking, agriculture, and livestock. The Permian basin’s experience with induced seismicity and water scarcity underscores these risks.
The commission prohibited fracking in this area, requiring saltwater (brackish) aquifers instead. While northern basins may qualify, desalination of brackish water adds complexity. Lessons from U.S. Permian operations could inform Mexico’s approach, but high costs and technical challenges remain.
