Military Might vs. Political Reality: Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Deficit in Yemen

A Houthi ballistic missile strike targeted Riyadh this past Saturday. While the Saudi-led coalition reported successful interceptions, a plume of smoke was observed near the capital’s airport, marking the first direct strike on the city since hostilities intensified this summer.

This incident underscores a critical reality: despite possessing one of the most expensive military arsenals in the world, Saudi Arabia struggles to translate firepower into political dominance. According to AFP, the Houthi movement now controls Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, having seized Mokha and claiming Perim Island in the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait.

The conflict is deeply rooted in history. Saudi Arabia initiated its air campaign on March 26, 2015, to halt the Houthi advance toward Aden. Although a 2022 truce provided temporary relief, tensions spiked again on July 20 of this year when the Houthis declared a blockade against Saudi ports and vessels. The Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project suggests this escalation was a response to Saudi efforts to prevent Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisers from reaching Sanaa.

The United States has maintained a restrained role in the conflict. Axios reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made two calls to President Trump on September 10 to request military strikes, though the report claims Trump declined. Similar requests were noted by Reuters, though both the White House and the Saudi embassy have remained silent on these unverified details.

In a separate development, Trump suggested that the Houthis had expressed a desire for peace. Speaking in Dublin on September 12, he noted that the group claimed they do not want to fight and are allowing most shipping to pass, specifically excluding “one country” that he reportedly meant was Saudi Arabia. This characterization was described as “shocking” by former American diplomat Barbara Leaf.

While American support remains limited, it is substantive. Saudi state media reported that Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, met with the Crown Prince in Jeddah on Monday. While a US defense official confirmed the meeting, specific details were withheld. Axios reports that Washington is providing intelligence and targeting data, and on September 17, the State Department approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35 fighters, subject to congressional review. However, Reuters noted that these aircraft may lack certain capabilities found in Israeli models.

Increasing the volume of weaponry will not address the fundamental issue. Saudi Arabia’s inability to neutralize the Houthi threat stems not from a deficit of advanced hardware or air defenses, but from the absence of a viable political objective.

Yasmeen al-Eryani of the Sana’a Center informed Al Jazeera that the Houthis currently appear to dictate the tempo of escalation. She suggested that Riyadh’s most pragmatic path forward is containment rather than total military defeat.

In response, Riyadh is seeking broader partnerships. In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan entered into a joint defense pact. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated to NTV that Turkey is prepared to assist with Saudi military technical requirements. Meanwhile, Pakistan has indicated that no military intervention is currently being discussed under the pact, and Ismail Numan Telci of Ibn Haldun University noted that various limitations prevent Turkey from taking a direct combat role.

READ: Yemen’s Houthis claim missile, drone attacks on Saudi capital

Egypt faces significant collateral consequences. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi noted in May that instability near Bab al-Mandeb has cost Egypt approximately $10 billion in Suez Canal revenue since 2023, as shipping companies bypass the canal to avoid the Red Sea. For Cairo, the Yemeni conflict is a direct economic threat.

The influence of Iran remains a complicating factor. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard, described the Houthi gains on Yemen’s west coast as a “divine triumph,” highlighting how Tehran gains strategic leverage through an ally capable of threatening vital maritime chokepoints. While the Houthis claim their blockade only targets Saudi vessels, Trump has maintained that most international shipping continues to pass.

The Houthis are not without vulnerabilities; their missile supplies are finite. While Washington may attempt to disrupt Iranian resupply routes, the success of such efforts is uncertain, as smuggling networks are highly adaptive and local production in Yemen continues to grow.

Political timing may also be influencing US policy. A new military entanglement prior to the November midterms carries risks of American casualties, increased shipping costs, and inflationary pressure. A senior administration official told Axios that Washington’s current priority is protecting maritime navigation while allowing regional allies to take the lead.

Further escalation seems likely. As Saudi Arabia rearms, the Houthis retain the ability to strike urban centers and shipping lanes. Nawaf Obaid of King’s College London suggests a coalition is coalescing toward a “massive” response, though this will likely manifest through airstrikes, proxy warfare, and arms transfers rather than large-scale troop deployments. Notably, the Seoul Economic Daily reported that Riyadh’s requests for interceptor missiles have met with limited enthusiasm from allies.

The lesson for Riyadh is clear: despite massive investments in Western technology, a much less wealthy adversary can still strike the heart of the Kingdom. International partners are willing to sell arms and share intelligence, but they show little interest in participating in the actual conflict.

This creates a central contradiction in Saudi security strategy: firepower can punish an enemy, but it cannot always defeat one. Unless the Kingdom integrates its growing military capacity with a coherent political strategy, it faces another protracted conflict rather than a decisive victory.

Observers now question whether this struggle will eventually surpass the tensions between Washington and Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab al-Mandeb strait may well become the epicenter of a long-term struggle involving Saudi security, Iranian regional influence, Yemeni sovereignty, and the stability of global trade.

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