Nasdaq Hits Fresh Record, Bitcoin Surges Above $84K Amid AI Momentum Despite Hawkish Fed

Markets Look Past a More Hawkish Fed

Risk appetite accelerated sharply at the start of the week, even as the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish stance. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.26% on Monday, closing at a new record of 27,122.09, while Bitcoin surged past $84,000, marking its highest level in eight months. These gains arrived just days after the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% and increased its median 2026 year‑end rate forecast from 3.8% to 4.1%, signaling another likely increase before year end.

The rally is not a typical response to monetary‑policy easing. Instead, investors are looking past the Fed’s higher rate trajectory, driven by strong confidence in AI investment and technology earnings, while Bitcoin gains support from distinct regulatory developments. Lower oil prices and softer Treasury yields have eased immediate inflation and financial‑conditions pressures, but the fundamental mismatch remains: tighter Fed policy coexists with strength in the market’s highest‑beta assets.

However, the rally comes with a notable caveat. Volatility remains low, with the VIX hovering around 14.86, yet only about 30% of S&P 500 components are trading above their 50‑day moving averages at the start of the week. Consequently, the major indices are outpacing the broader market, reflecting a rally that remains concentrated in AI‑focused mega‑caps rather than a wide‑based risk‑on environment.

Nasdaq Record Shows Where Investors Are Placing Their Bet

Nasdaq’s superior performance underscored the sector concentration. The index rose 2.26%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.49% gain and the Dow’s 0.71% increase, after opening with a gap up and reaching an intraday high of 27,183.93. Investors were not buying broadly; instead, they favored firms directly tied to the ongoing AI investment surge.

AMD exemplified this enthusiasm, surpassing a $1 trillion market cap for the first time as investors priced stronger demand for AI computing power. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF also hit a new high, highlighting that leadership remains clustered among the largest technology companies.

The key macro takeaway is that investors now prioritize the AI capital‑expenditure and earnings cycle over concerns about the Fed’s incremental tightening. While interest rates still matter, the anticipated returns from the prevailing tech theme are currently sufficient to offset the higher discount rate.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Nasdaq: Bullish Structure Intact

Technical analysis reinforces this view. Nasdaq found robust support near its rising 55‑day EMA at about 26,117 before breaking to a new record. The daily MACD is moving higher, indicating that upward momentum is re‑emerging.

The near‑term stance stays bullish as long as the 25,802.96 support level holds. The next projected target is 28,442.31, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci projection of the 20,690.25‑27,190.21 advance from the 24,425.34 base.

The broader rising channel stays intact. Should momentum continue past 28,442.31, the channel’s ceiling—currently around 29,500—could approach 30,000 as it extends higher over time, unlike the static Fibonacci projection.

The primary caution remains breadth. A rally driven by a narrow set of AI leaders can continue to gather strength, but its sustainability would improve markedly if participation broadens across the wider market.

Bitcoin Finds a Different Route Around the Fed

Bitcoin’s narrative runs parallel but distinct. The asset jumped roughly 4% on Monday, climbing above $84,000 to an eight‑month peak, driven primarily by regulatory progress amid ongoing congressional stalemate.

The SEC has cleared a temporary pathway for platforms to trade tokenized stocks, and the CFTC has advanced crypto‑market rules for White House review. The key point is not just that regulation is easing, but that agencies are moving forward despite stalled congressional action, lessening the view that regulatory clarity hinges solely on legislation.

Short covering intensified the rally as large Bitcoin short positions were unwound and prices surged. Crypto‑linked equities also rose, reinforcing the shift in sentiment. Lower oil prices and a more favorable risk backdrop added macro support, yet the regulatory breakthrough provides Bitcoin with a more asset‑specific driver than the Nasdaq’s AI‑focused rally.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Bitcoin: Breakout Opens the Way Toward $100,000

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has staged a pivotal breakout. The decisive move above 83,901.34—a 38.2% retracement of the decline from 126,230.09 to 57,736.97—confirms that the prior downtrend from the peak has likely ended.

Whether this recovery from 57,736.97 constitutes a fresh impulsive leg or a corrective bounce, the next key target is the 61.8% retracement at 100,065.72—near structural resistance of 97,855.94 and the psychologically significant $100,000 level.

In the immediate term, Bitcoin remains well above its rising 55‑day EMA near 74,916. A modest consolidation could appear around 87,223.28—the 61.8% projection of the 62,488.01‑82,224.57 swing from 75,026.09—amid stretched RSI readings on both the 4‑hour and daily charts. Any pullback would stay corrective as long as it holds above 75,026.09, with the next upside target at 94,762.65.

AI Is Winning Against Rates—For Now

Nasdaq and Bitcoin illustrate two distinct ways markets are looking past a more hawkish Fed. Strong conviction in AI investment is offsetting higher-rate pressures in technology, while regulatory advances and short covering have propelled Bitcoin through a key technical resistance level.

Sustaining this rally hinges on two factors. First, the core drivers must endure: AI investment expectations should remain robust, and crypto regulatory momentum must continue. Second, equity participation needs to broaden. As long as Nasdaq can keep setting new highs while most stocks stay below their 50‑day averages, the rally may persist, though it will remain a narrative of AI exceptionalism rather than a broad‑based risk‑on environment.

For now, the market’s message is clear: despite the Fed’s rate hike and an upward revision of its policy path, investors have uncovered stronger motivators for buying. Whether those motivators retain their potency as tightening proceeds remains the upcoming challenge.

Key Takeaways

• Nasdaq closed at a record 27,122.09, up 2.26%, while Bitcoin surged past $84,000 shortly after the Fed increased rates and lifted its median 2026 rate projection to 4.1%.
• Approximately 30% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50‑day moving averages, underscoring that the rally remains concentrated in AI‑focused mega‑caps rather than a broad risk‑on move.
• AMD achieved a $1 trillion market cap for the first time, highlighting investors’ strong favor for AI‑infrastructure exposure.
• Bitcoin’s advance is propelled by a unique catalyst: progress on SEC and CFTC crypto regulations, independent of stalled Senate bills, which was further amplified by short covering.
• Bitcoin’s break above 83,901.34 confirms the end of the prior downtrend from its peak, setting the next major targets at 100,065.72 and the psychological $100,000 level.

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