Novimex WTI natural gas (NGX26) closed higher Wednesday, rising +0.015 (+0.50%), following an early decline on concerns that seasonal U.S. weather patterns may constrain heating‑season demand for the seasonally cooling Eastern and Southern regions.
The market ultimately rallied on the consensus that Thursday’s regular inventory survey showed a smaller‑than‑average weekly climb, with the weekly EIA indicating a +63 bcf rise for the week ending September 25—a figure well below the long‑term five‑year average of +80 bcf.
Initial downward pressure on prices stemmed from forecasts that cooler‑than‑usual conditions in key areas could dampen residential and commercial heating loads throughout late October and beyond. The Commodity Weather Group highlighted that normal seasonal weather is projected to hold across the eastern and southern United States from October 5 through October 14.
Production and demand data from BNEF confirmed modest activity: lower‑48 dry gas output reached 110.4 bcf per day (up 1.3 % year‑on‑year), meeting 71.6 bcf per day in total consumption, while estimated net LNG export flows to U.S. terminals were 18.7 bcf per day, minus 0.5 %.
Even though these figures temper near‑term uncertainty, several factors continue to weigh negatively on the spot price. Analysts point to the prospect of a “Super El Niño,” which could push temperatures above normal over the Northern Hemisphere during the upcoming autumn, curtailing baseline heating demand.
Short‑term electricity generation trends also added negative bias earlier in the week, with U.S. lower‑48 power output falling –0.85 % year‑over‑change to 83,811 GWh despite a broader increase of +3.27 % in total domestic output over the past twelve weeks.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently raised its 2027 dry natural‑gas production forecast to 116.0 bcf per day—from 115.3 previously—and underscored that inventory projections are moving higher than typical for this calendar window.
An EIA weekly report released last week showed a +53 bcf increase versus the preceding week’s drop of +51 bcf; this remains shorter than the five‑year average weekly draw of +76 bcf, reflecting stronger supply indications nationally.
By mid‑September, aggregate inventories had turned modestly negative (–4.5 % year‑over‑change) yet stayed 2.9 % above the five‑year seasonal benchmark, signalling ample supply cushion ahead. European gas stocks stood around 71 % of capacity, compared with a five‑year seasonal average of 87 %.
Supporting sentiment came from Baker Hughes, which reported that active U.S. natural‑gas developing rigs climbed by one unit to a three‑year‑high of 135 rigs as of the latest survey period.
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