NATO’s senior military commander is preparing to deliver a warning to Russia on Monday regarding the alliance’s capacity to counter any offensive, as anxieties mount over escalating threats from Moscow.
Officials at NATO headquarters have confirmed that US General Alexus Grynkewich, the alliance’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), will elaborate on his “theory of victory” concerning any potential attack during a security conference in Warsaw.
The directive from the alliance’s top military figure comes as NATO seeks to signal to Moscow that it must halt what Western officials describe as a “hybrid” campaign of sabotage and interference targeting Ukraine’s backers in the ongoing war.
Concerns have intensified in recent months following high-profile incidents, including the discovery of an explosive-laden drone at a German airport.
“The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO’s advantage, which is consistent with and grounded upon the alliance’s deterrence and defence plans,” Colonel Martin O’Donnell, a spokesperson for the US general, stated last week.
“But given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked,” O’Donnell added, noting that the theory establishes a framework to achieve precisely that.

NATO, which was established in the wake of World War II to counter the Soviet Union, has traditionally kept its defence plans designed to repel a Russian attack closely guarded.
Grynkewich’s intervention is not expected to divulge many new specifics on NATO’s strategy; instead, it is intended to send a signal to Moscow while reassuring member states on the alliance’s eastern flank.
The alliance insists it remains strictly defensive and has no intention of attacking Russia.
Western officials argue that Moscow’s “hybrid attacks” have grown increasingly reckless as Kremlin forces are stalled in Ukraine, actions that risk causing significant loss of life.
The alliance, whose primary purpose is deterring an armed Russian invasion, has struggled to determine how best to respond to incidents in the grey zone beneath open conflict.
NATO civilian head Mark Rutte has urged countries to remain “calm, carry on and support Ukraine.”
“We should not be naive… about Russia, but they know we are stronger,” Rutte said last month.
However, the uptick in Russian activity coincides with a period of potential vulnerability for Europe. Allies are currently bracing for possible reductions in US forces stationed on the continent as the Pentagon reviews its deployments.
The results of that process are expected to be announced towards the end of the year.
European nations are already rushing to bolster their own militaries as doubts have soared regarding the reliability of the United States under President Donald Trump.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
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