Netanyahu’s Bloc Falls Short of Majority as Arab Turnout Reshapes Israeli Political Landscape

TEL AVIV, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition remained well short of a parliamentary majority Thursday as final ballot counts revealed a historic surge in Arab voter participation, potentially handing the opposition a decisive parliamentary bloc.

With 93.8% of votes tallied as of 4 a.m. ET Thursday, including double-envelope ballots, Netanyahu’s alliance was projected to secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot trailed with 48 seats. Crucially, the two predominantly Arab parties — the Joint List and Ra’am — were projected to win a combined 19 seats, nearly doubling their previous representation and creating a potential anti-Netanyahu parliamentary majority of 67.

A road sign stands in front of a large billboard featuring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot, in Ramat Gan on Oct. 20, 2026. (Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images)

Likud remained the largest single party with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar party with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party with 12. The figures remain preliminary, but neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to the 61 seats required to form a government independently, setting the stage for protracted coalition negotiations or a potential repeat election.

The dramatic shift stemmed from Israel’s Arab citizens, whose turnout reached approximately 80% — a sharp increase from 53.2% in the 2022 election, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. Overall voter participation hit 77.7% by the official close of polls, the highest at that hour since 1999, per the Central Elections Committee.

This surge could prove decisive in determining the next government’s composition. While Eisenkot and several opposition leaders ruled out formally including Arab parties in a governing coalition during the campaign, their parliamentary support could enable the opposition to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu ally, and seize control of the legislative agenda before a new government is formed.

Posters of Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu are displayed on billboards ahead of the Knesset elections, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Oct. 25, 2026. (Nir Keidar/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Qatar Allegations Intensify Political Battle

The political stakes escalated Thursday following a Channel 12 report alleging that substantial funds originating in Qatar may have been channeled to influence voter turnout in Arab communities. According to the network, some funds allegedly moved through financial channels previously linked to transfers to terrorist organizations, including currency exchanges.

The allegations have not been independently substantiated, and investigators have not established whether foreign financing occurred or election crimes were committed. Channel 12 reported that Shin Bet Director David Zini presented intelligence on suspected foreign interference to Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, who ordered an investigation and requested findings within one week.

Qatar categorically denied the allegations Thursday, accusing Israeli politicians of dragging the Gulf nation into domestic disputes. “We categorically deny allegations that Qatar has interfered in Israeli elections or funded any activities intended to influence their outcome,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dr. Majed Al-Ansari wrote on X. He characterized the claims as a “disinformation campaign” and insisted Qatar had no involvement in Israel’s electoral process.

Acting Central Elections Committee director general Dean Livne also rejected the allegations, stating the elections were conducted lawfully and that there was no basis for claims of systematic violations.

An Arab-Israeli woman casts her ballot during Israel’s general elections on Oct. 27, 2026, in Umm El Fahem, Israel. (Amir Levy/Getty Images)

Netanyahu and Likud had already challenged the legitimacy of Arab parties’ gains, accusing them of electoral fraud before the Qatari allegations emerged — accusations that remain unsubstantiated. On Thursday, Likud argued the suspected foreign interference made cooperation with Arab parties unacceptable, asserting that “no Zionist party must cooperate with Ra’am and the Joint List, replace the Knesset speaker using votes bought with cash, or establish a government dangerous to Israel.” The claim that parliamentary seats were obtained through purchased votes has not been established by the investigation.

Political analysts suggested Likud’s immediate objective is preventing the opposition from using its potential majority to replace the Knesset speaker. Journalist Amir Tibon argued the deeper motive is blocking a state commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7 attacks, which could examine Qatari involvement in Gaza and Israel.

Eisenkot responded after meeting with Shin Bet Director Zini, calling foreign involvement “unacceptable and profoundly serious, particularly when it involves a country that funds and supports Hamas.” He demanded a thorough investigation and the strongest possible action against anyone found to have compromised the election’s integrity, while accusing Netanyahu of conducting “an illegitimate influence operation targeting the Israeli public” to delay results and undermine the new Knesset’s legitimacy.

Commentator Amit Segal assessed the likelihood of the entire election being invalidated as “extremely slim, given the time constraints,” suggesting developments could instead intensify discussions about a unity government or another election. Meanwhile, Democrats party leader Yair Golan urged opposition leaders to move quickly toward forming a government, declaring: “The people have spoken. Sixty-seven seats demanded change.”

Could Trump Help Broker a Unity Government?

Another potential path is a national unity coalition between Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar party, potentially excluding both Arab parties and Netanyahu’s far-right allies. Such an arrangement could align with preferences of figures close to President Donald Trump, who publicly endorsed Netanyahu before the election.

According to Ynet diplomatic correspondent Itamar Eichner, sources close to Trump said the president wants to ensure far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is excluded from the next government, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich potentially sidelined as well. Trump associates reportedly contacted Israeli political figures to assess unity government prospects and expressed a preference for a stable coalition without Ben-Gvir. Trump himself has not publicly endorsed a specific arrangement, telling Axios on Wednesday, “I will take a look.”

A Netanyahu-Eisenkot unity government would face substantial obstacles. Eisenkot repeatedly pledged not to join a Netanyahu-led government, while Netanyahu’s far-right partners have warned against efforts to exclude them.

The ultra-Orthodox parties present another theoretical route. Netanyahu’s projected 53 seats include 14 held by Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have traditionally aligned with him. Combined with Eisenkot’s 48-seat bloc, this would yield a 62-seat majority. However, such an arrangement would clash over military conscription: Eisenkot has pledged to expand mandatory service to ultra-Orthodox men, while the religious parties seek to preserve exemptions for yeshiva students. Political divisions within Eisenkot’s own bloc pose additional hurdles.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the Knesset as President Donald Trump and Amir Ohana, speaker of the Knesset, listen, Oct. 13, 2025, in Jerusalem. (Chip Somodevilla/Pool via AP)

For now, the foreign interference allegations remain under investigation while election results confirm Netanyahu’s existing coalition lacks the parliamentary majority required to govern alone. Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed, a process that could take weeks or longer.

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