New Hampshire Democrats Warn of Losing Senate Seat as Republicans Surge in Spending

Two months before the midterms, Democrats are channeling significant financial resources into Republican-leaning states such as Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, hoping to regain control of the Senate by flipping seats in states won by President Trump in 2024.

New Hampshire has a different concern to share.

In recent weeks, a wave of anxiety has spread among Democrats in the Granite State, who fear that while the party sets its sights on ambitious targets elsewhere, it could lose the Senate seat soon to be vacated by Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, who is preparing to retire.

The contest expected to take shape following Tuesday’s primary would likely feature Representative Chris Pappas, 46, a four-term congressman representing the politically competitive First District, against former Senator John E. Sununu, who is both the brother and son of two former governors. A recent University of New Hampshire poll shows Mr. Pappas trailing narrowly in a hypothetical matchup between the two.

Mr. Pappas himself has sounded the alarm, emphasizing the national significance of the race. In a fundraising email sent Friday morning, he stated plainly: “We’re losing.”

Mr. Sununu’s entry into the race, following years of uninspired Republican recruitment efforts in the state, has prompted Republican promises of substantial spending, which some Democrats worry they are unable to match.

Meanwhile, Mr. Pappas has sought to calm fears regarding a progressive primary challenger, Karishma Manzur, who appears to have closed the gap in polling, reflecting a broader national trend of anti-establishment candidates gaining traction.

“If we want to take back four seats and flip the Senate majority, we cannot afford to lose any seat currently held by a Democrat,” Mr. Pappas said in an interview this week.

‘A purple state’

On paper, New Hampshire should be a straightforward hold for Democrats. Ms. Shaheen and Senator Maggie Hassan, the state’s other Democratic senator, both secured comfortable re-election victories in 2022 and 2020, respectively. Voters have not elected a Republican to the Senate since Kelly Ayotte—now the governor—won in 2010, and the state has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 2000.

However, New Hampshire Democrats, whose prominent role in hosting the nation’s first presidential primary remains a point of pride, argue the reality is far more nuanced, especially with Mr. Sununu in the race. Ms. Hassan and Ms. Shaheen faced relatively obscure Republican challengers in their most recent elections. The last time a Democrat encountered a formidable Republican opponent, when Ms. Ayotte sought re-election in 2016, Ms. Hassan won by approximately 1,000 votes.

Additionally, in 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris’s margin of victory over President Trump in New Hampshire was less than three points—the narrowest of any state she won.

“People forget that New Hampshire isn’t a blue state. It’s a purple state,” said Kathy Sullivan, former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

Ms. Ayotte is up for re-election as governor, and her candidacy could provide a boost to Mr. Sununu on the ballot. However, Democrats are particularly concerned about the financial firepower Republicans are preparing to deploy. The Senate Leadership Fund, the primary Republican super PAC, has committed $17 million to the New Hampshire general election, while its Democratic counterpart, Senate Majority PAC, has pledged $10.2 million in advertising—a figure slightly below its initial television reservation for Alaska. (Mr. Pappas’s own fundraising has significantly outstripped Mr. Sununu’s.)

“Unless people wake up to the fact that New Hampshire is a real contest, I do think there’s a risk of him being overwhelmed by all this G.O.P. outside money,” said Aaron Jacobs, a Democratic strategist in the state and former aide to Ms. Hassan. “I think he will need more resources—both for his campaign and from national partners—to pull this off.”

But in an election cycle where Democrats see numerous opportunities elsewhere, New Hampshire Democrats worry that attracting resources to their state will prove difficult. WinSenate, a group affiliated with Senate Majority PAC and Democratic leadership, has spent or reserved $55 million in advertising for the Ohio Senate race and over $30 million in Iowa—both significantly larger states—according to data compiled by AdImpact.

“I keep getting ads and emails soliciting donations,” said Ms. Sullivan. “They always highlight other states and never New Hampshire. It drives me crazy.”

She added, “You’ve got to protect every state that’s competitive. I just don’t see that happening here the way it should.”

Sununu’s return

Mr. Sununu, son of former Governor John H. Sununu, served three terms as congressman in the district currently represented by Mr. Pappas before defeating Ms. Shaheen in the 2002 Senate race. He lost to her in a 2008 rematch during President Obama’s first presidential campaign.

Democrats have eagerly exploited voter confusion between him and his brother, the charismatic and popular former Governor Chris Sununu. (Democratic operatives have even commissioned polling on the matter.)

While John E. Sununu is less outgoing than his brother, he is anticipated to win Tuesday’s Republican primary comfortably against Scott Brown, a fellow former senator who lost his own race to Ms. Shaheen in 2014. Mr. Sununu has earned President Trump’s endorsement but has taken steps to distinguish himself from the unpopular president on issues such as the trade dispute with Canada, given the close economic ties between that nation and New Hampshire. He declined a request for an interview.

“New Hampshire represents a prime pickup opportunity as Republicans work to protect and expand our majority,” said Chris Gustafson, a spokesman for the Senate Leadership Fund.

‘A must-win’

Lauren French, a spokeswoman for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, said the organization is not taking the state for granted, especially given the Sununu family’s enduring popularity. Spending disparities, she explained, reflect the varying sizes and media markets across different states.

“We understand that this should be a must-win for us,” Ms. French said, adding that the seat is “also a Democratic performing seat.”

The concern in New Hampshire also stems from doubts about Democratic leadership following several high-profile setbacks. The candidate recruited to run for Senate in Maine, Governor Janet Mills, fared poorly against an insurgent challenge from Graham Platner, who subsequently exited the race. Last month, Alex Vindman, a former national security official and key witness in President Trump’s first impeachment trial, lost his Senate primary in Florida to democratic socialist Angie Nixon.

Mr. Pappas faces a progressive challenger as well. A University of New Hampshire poll released late last month indicated that Ms. Manzur, a medical scientist lacking significant support from national progressive organizations, has narrowed her deficit since June.

On Monday, Mr. Pappas announced an endorsement from Ms. Harris, a move seemingly designed to generate national attention and boost fundraising rather than solidify in-state support. His campaign also recently released its own poll through the website Semafor showing him with a more substantial lead over Ms. Manzur.

The unassuming grandson of the man credited with creating chicken tenders in Manchester, Mr. Pappas is a favorite of the state’s Democratic establishment and has managed to make his swing district appear less politically divided than it actually is. If elected, he would become the first openly gay male senator, though he has not emphasized this historic potential in his campaign.

While Mr. Pappas and his supporters work to attract attention and financial backing from national Democrats, he has positioned himself apart from many of the party’s rising stars who have gained prominence through sharp social media content and pledges to confront rather than collaborate with political opponents. Mr. Pappas maintains that he understands what resonates with voters in his state.

“I’m less focused on the national aspects of political discourse and what it takes to appear on cable news,” he said. “I’m much more interested in understanding what people are experiencing right now and how that can translate into wins.”

Source link