Putin & The ‘Drowning Man Syndrome’ Sudan

The week has been defined by escalating drone attacks between Ukraine and Russia, rising concerns of a humanitarian crisis in Sudan, anti‑immigration demonstrations in South Africa, and a landmark decision by the US Supreme Court, reflecting broader struggles over power, identity, and international law.

In Russia, long queues have formed at petrol stations after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged oil refineries and fuel infrastructure. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the attacks as “creating problems,” noting that strategic reserves are being drawn down and that restrictions on diesel exports are under consideration, while insisting the situation is “not critical.” President Volodymyr Zelensky has launched a 40‑day campaign of deep strikes against Russian energy facilities to increase pressure on the Kremlin. Simultaneously, Russia conducted one of its largest aerial assaults on Kyiv since the war began, firing 74 missiles and about 500 drones over an 11‑hour period, killing at least 30 people and striking residential buildings. Analysts warn that Russia may be slipping into what they term a “drowning man syndrome” — escalating its actions as strategic options dwindle.

Attention has shifted to Sudan, where the humanitarian situation in El Obeid is rapidly worsening. Approximately half a million civilians are effectively trapped as the Rapid Support Forces tighten their encirclement of the city. Military analysts anticipate a major ground offensive may be imminent, while the United Nations reports dwindling food supplies and damage to essential infrastructure that place civilians at grave risk. Amnesty International warns that the siege resembles tactics used during the capture of El Fasher and calls for the urgent deployment of an international protection force to prevent what it describes as another potential “stain on the conscience of humanity.”

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