Silver Surges on Triangle Breakout as Treasury Buybacks Weigh on Yields

On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to double its purchases of long-term government bonds, resulting in a noticeable drop in long-end yields. This move forms part of the Treasury’s wider strategy to ease pressure on long-term borrowing costs, which includes active market interventions and urging the Federal Reserve to expand the capacity of its FIMA repo facility.

Falling Treasury yields enhance the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like precious metals, offering direct upside for silver. Adding to the bullish backdrop, industrial demand remains strong—China’s imports of silver-bearing ores climbed 62.5% year-over-year in June, driven by surging output in solar panel and power-grid manufacturing.

Technical Outlook for Silver (XAG/USD)

Since July 17, XAG/USD has been advancing within a clear uptrend on the four-hour chart. During the latter part of this move, a broadening triangle pattern took shape in mid-August. Unlike traditional triangles, where trendlines converge, this structure saw expanding boundaries—a reflection of rising volatility during the consolidation phase.

On August 20, the pair broke above the upper boundary of the pattern and maintained its position above the current Market Profile. The breakout candle coincided with a marked rise in volume compared to prior bars, lending early validation to the upward breakout.

With momentum building, silver pushed past the upper edge of the Market Profile at $66.58. Should bullish pressure persist, the next key resistance comes in at the red projected target near $69.74.

If price action reverts inside the profile, focus will turn to a critical support cluster formed by the Point of Control at $65.165 and the lower boundary of the profile at $64.345. Given their closeness, this zone becomes pivotal for the short-term trend. A break below these levels could open the door to further downside, potentially testing the green support area near $62.700.

The RSI + MAs indicator is currently reading 66, 56, and 56. While the oscillator remains in positive territory above its neutral midpoint, both moving averages are still positioned beneath it and are only beginning to show signs of catching up, suggesting there may be room for upward continuation.

Key Takeaways

The decisive breakout above the broadening triangle—on the back of stronger volume—initially signals more upside ahead. However, sustained progress will depend on whether price can remain above the Market Profile.

Near-term direction hinges on the $66.58 threshold. Holding above this level supports a push toward $69.74, whereas a dip back below the profile renews attention on the $65.165-$64.345 support band.

Macro drivers remain in play. Continued declines in U.S. Treasury yields are likely to underpin silver prices, while a rebound in long-term yields could temper the rally.

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