Stocks Rally on Trump‑Signed US‑Iran Ceasefire Deal, Crude Prices Slide

The S&P 500 rose 0.73%, the Dow added 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.62%. June E‑mini S&P futures gained 0.80% and Nasdaq futures climbed 1.65%.

Markets surged after President Trump signed a preliminary agreement on Wednesday to end the US‑Iran war. The deal pushed crude oil to a 3.5‑month low, easing inflation expectations and encouraging risk‑on sentiment across asset classes.

Semiconductor stocks led the rally, with Intel climbing about 8% after Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design and manufacture U.S. chips. In contrast, IT service shares retreated, led by a 16% drop in Accenture following a disappointing Q4 revenue forecast.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000, near the expected 225,000. The June Philadelphia Fed business outlook index rose to 10.3, exceeding the 10.0 forecast.

Trading was particularly volatile today due to triple‑witching—an expiration of options, futures, and derivatives— occurring ahead of the Juneteenth holiday, when U.S. markets will be closed.

WTI crude slipped more than 2% to a fresh 3.5‑month low after Trump signed a memorandum in Paris extending the US‑Iran ceasefire for 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The move could free over 100 tankers, adding supply. Goldman Sachs cut its Brent forecast for Q4 to $80 a barrel from $90 and expects Gulf exports to return to pre‑war levels by July’s end, a month earlier than previously anticipated.

Markets now price a 34% probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate increase at the July 28‑29 FOMC meeting.

Overseas equity markets posted mixed results. The Euro Stoxx 50 hit a record high, up 0.38%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.43% from a three‑week peak. Japan’s Nikkei surged 1.65% to a new all‑time high.

Interest Rates

Ten‑year Treasury notes rose two ticks, pushing the yield down 4.8 bp to 4.430%. Falling oil prices lifted inflation expectations, pulling the 10‑year breakeven rate to a six‑month low of 2.218%.

Gains in Treasuries were limited as rising equities curbed safe‑haven demand, and the sector carried a modest negative carryover after the Fed raised its 2026 core PCE forecast and signaled higher rates later in the year.

European government bond yields moved higher today. The 10‑year German bund yield ticked up 0.2 bp to 2.929%, while the 10‑year UK gilt yield rose 0.2 bp to 4.753%.

ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher warned that price pressures will stay elevated in the Eurozone despite the Middle‑East ceasefire, noting the central bank remains prepared to act to bring inflation back to the 2 % target.

The UK’s April ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%, beating expectations of a steady 5.0%.

The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in a 7‑2 vote and said it “stands ready to act” on inflation. Governor Andrew Bailey called the oil price decline encouraging but cautioned that energy costs could stay high for an extended period.

Swaps price a 16% chance of a 25‑bp ECB hike at its July 23 meeting.

US Stock Movers

Semiconductor shares continued to shine, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up over 4% to a record high. Intel surged about 8% following the Trump‑Apple chip initiative. Other chip names also rose, including ARM (+6%), Marvell (+6%), Applied Materials (+5%), Micron (+5%), Lam Research (+5%), KLA (+5%), AMD (+4%), Microchip (+4%), NXP (+4%), Analog Devices (+4%), and Texas Instruments (+4%).

Airline and cruise operators rallied as the 2% drop in WTI oil lowered fuel costs. Royal Caribbean rose about 4%, Alaska Air, Southwest, and Carnival each gained over 3%, while United, Norwegian, American, and Delta advanced more than 2%.

IT service stocks fell sharply, led by a 16% drop in Accenture, the S&P’s biggest loser, after it forecast Q4 revenue below consensus, raising concerns about AI disruption. Cognizant fell over 7%, Huron more than 7%, IBM slipped over 6%, and Globant dropped over 5%.

Centrus Energy jumped more than 8% after signing a letter of intent to supply low‑enriched uranium for Oklo’s Aurora reactors for several years.

Talen Energy rose over 5% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating and $499 price target.

Integra LifeSciences gained about 3% following an upgrade to buy by Argus with a $25 target.

Novocure fell more than 16% after its Phase‑III TRIDENT trial failed to meet its primary endpoint.

Kroger declined over 6% after reporting Q1 EPS below expectations and forecasting a weaker 2027 outlook.

Steel Dynamics dropped over 5% as its Q2 EPS guidance lagged consensus.

FactSet fell more than 3% after Rothschild & Co downgraded the stock to sell with a $215 target.

Earnings Reports (June 18 2026)

Accenture PLC and Kroger Co.

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