Trump’s New Demand Threatens Recent Saudi‑U.S. Nuclear Deal

President Trump’s demand on Thursday that Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel as a condition for its nuclear deal with the United States—already signed—has left Saudi officials in an awkward position.

Saudi Arabia has long conditioned any normalization with Israel on progress toward a Palestinian state. In the wake of Mr. Trump’s abrupt statement, the kingdom has remained notably silent.

“I don’t think the Saudis want to entertain this,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities in Washington. “They would prefer it simply disappear.”

Israel is deeply unpopular in Saudi Arabia, largely because of its conduct in the Gaza war after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Ongoing Israeli military operations and the government’s opposition to a Palestinian state make accepting Mr. Trump’s demand “politically toxic enough to threaten the Saudi regime’s survival,” Ms. Kelanic warned.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, though not elected, relies on public backing, she noted. Accepting Mr. Trump’s condition, she added, “would erode the legitimacy of his rule.”

Analysts say Saudi Arabia finds itself in a difficult position, assuming Mr. Trump’s remark is genuine—though that is uncertain. The agreement’s details remain unpublished, and the president has habitually leveraged social‑media commentary as a bargaining chip even after deals appear settled.

Analysts suggest the agreement could still proceed, given the ambiguity surrounding Mr. Trump’s demand.

“We don’t know whether this is a fleeting reaction or a firm condition,” said Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former State Department Middle East adviser.

The Saudi‑U.S. nuclear deal has drawn criticism in Israel and elsewhere—including from The Wall Street Journal editorial board, as Mr. Miller pointed out—and he suggested the president might be reacting to critics who claim he has surrendered leverage over the kingdom by pushing the deal forward.

Mr. Miller also expressed skepticism that Saudi Arabia would accept Mr. Trump’s new stipulation, noting that, at present, persuading the kingdom to normalize ties with Israel’s current government is hardly even a hypothetical scenario.

Both analysts concurred that Mr. Trump’s unpredictable diplomatic style might allow the deal to move ahead unchanged.

Saudi officials “have good reason to expect he might later tweet something entirely different” about the accord, Ms. Kelanic said. She added that any such post “would not alter the substance of the agreement.”

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