London — Oct. 15, 2026 | 4 min read
The announcement by President Donald Trump that he is waiving U.S. sanctions and arranging the purchase of millions of tons of diesel fuel from Russia has been met with a mixture of shock and deep-seated resignation in Europe and Kyiv.
The “shocking” element was the sheer suddenness, timing, and scale of Mr. Trump’s policy reversal. The decision came as American, Ukrainian, and European negotiators were actively discussing a framework to end the war, and merely weeks after the president signed a unanimous Senate bill endorsing tighter sanctions on Russian oil exports. The timing is particularly critical as Ukraine struggles with a severe shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors—largely due to the Iran war—and faces the prospect of brutal winter bombardments of its energy infrastructure by an emboldened Vladimir Putin.
Yet, it is the “not surprising” aspect of the shift that weighs most heavily on European leaders’ minds, fueling an ever-deepening concern about the long-term reliability of the transatlantic alliance. In the immediate term, European capitals are hoping to mitigate the worst fallout for Kyiv, drawing on a playbook they have refined over the past eighteen months of shifting geopolitical alignments.
Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Kremlin/AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Oct. 12, 2026.
Since returning to the White House, Mr. Trump has periodically tilted toward Moscow while exerting pressure on Ukraine, before later shifting back. Early in his second term, he and Vice President JD Vance publicly rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office and briefly withheld critical intelligence support. European allies responded by engaging directly with Washington, working to shore up Mr. Zelenskyy’s relationship with Mr. Trump, and finding ways to continue providing aid that Washington could accept—such as a program under which Europe purchases American weapons for Kyiv. They also increased their own defense spending and military support, despite knowing they cannot yet fully compensate for a complete U.S. disengagement.
It is this established playbook that European leaders are now activating in response to the diesel agreement. They have strongly reiterated their support for Ukraine and signaled that sanctions on Russia should be tightened, not eased.
Alastair Grant/AP
Britain’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham welcomes Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at No. 10 Downing St. in London, Oct. 14, 2026.
On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham welcomed President Zelenskyy to Downing Street and announced the accelerated delivery of British weapons capable of intercepting Russia’s latest jet-powered drones.
Europe’s best-case scenario is that Mr. Trump might yet backtrack or delay his tilt toward Moscow—potentially due to domestic political pressure from Republicans on Capitol Hill. However, since the diesel deal, reports suggest the United States may again withhold intelligence from Ukraine if Kyiv does not cease its attacks on Russian refineries. While Mr. Trump stated early this week that intelligence sharing was ongoing, Mr. Zelenskyy has suggested otherwise, and the BBC reported that Ukrainian soldiers are facing restrictions on access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system.
European diplomats remain focused on reviving momentum for the peace framework discussed with U.S. envoys last week. As detailed by The Washington Post, this framework involves difficult compromises for both sides, but critically includes the postwar Western security guarantees that Mr. Zelenskyy has long sought.
Still, the immediate diplomatic efforts have not erased the deeper, long-term skepticism. The primary reason the diesel deal was not entirely surprising is that it confirmed Europe’s growing belief that Washington no longer shares its vision of the continent’s security landscape.
For European democracies, Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—an attempt to oust a pro-Western, elected government—set off alarm bells. They are convinced that if the Russian president emerges from the conflict with a perceived victory, he will pose an immediate threat to other nations.
Conversely, they believe Mr. Trump views Russia through a different lens. His administration’s 2026 National Defense Strategy characterized Russia as a “manageable threat” and asserted that the country is “in no position to make a bid for European hegemony.” Furthermore, the White House appears to view Ukraine not as the victim of aggression, but as an equal party in a conflict that Mr. Trump is eager to resolve.
In recent days, Mr. Trump has intensified this perspective by leaning on Mr. Zelenskyy, suggesting that Ukraine’s refusal to make concessions is the primary reason the war has dragged on into its fifth year, stating that the Ukrainian leader “could have made many deals, and for some reason he never does.”
