Washington Abandons Diplomacy: The US Shifts to Military Posture on Iran’s Nuclear Program

President Donald Trump has spent recent months seeking an exit from a conflict with Iran that has grown increasingly unpopular among the American public. However, as the war initiated by the United States and Israel enters its seventh month and midterm elections draw near, the president appears to have made two pivotal decisions likely to extend the hostilities. The first involves the nuclear agreement the Trump administration signed with Saudi Arabia. The second stems from mounting evidence that Mr. Trump has abandoned negotiations with Tehran, opting instead to pursue Iran’s nuclear ambitions exclusively through military means.

Why We Wrote This

Halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons was a primary objective of the U.S.–Israel conflict in the Middle East. Yet, there are now growing indications that the Trump administration may have relinquished its pursuit of a diplomatic agreement with Tehran.

Initially, the Trump administration submitted a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress, which includes a pathway for the kingdom to eventually enrich uranium to near the threshold required for weapons-grade fuel.

Such an accord raises the prospect of a further nuclearized Middle East and grants Saudi Arabia the nuclear capability the U.S. has sought to deny Iran. Analysts suggest this will likely encourage Iran to continue the fight.

“The impact is significant if, in the midst of this war, you are providing the Saudis precisely what you have sought to deny the Iranians for four decades,” says Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington.

Furthermore, mounting hints from the U.S. administration indicate that military strikes, rather than diplomacy, will define the future approach to Iran’s nuclear program.

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright addresses a press conference during an International Atomic Energy Agency event at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Washington, on August 26, 2026.

“Could not care less”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has suggested that the administration may no longer seek a nuclear agreement with Iran, preferring instead to preemptively use military force to curb any resurgence of Iran’s nuclear activities.

These remarks followed an earlier social media post by Mr. Trump stating that he “could not care less” about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran—despite a negotiated agreement having been a U.S. condition for ending hostilities as recently as July.

Analysts argue that the combination of the Saudi nuclear deal and the administration’s apparent decision to address Iran’s nuclear capabilities through military means will only bolster Iranian determination to continue the war.

“The Iranians are calling the Saudi deal ‘strategic hypocrisy’ and a blatant double standard, and any fair and reasonable observer would agree with them,” says Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Arlington, Virginia.

“Instead of the principle of ‘what’s good for the goose is good for the gander,’ the U.S. is signaling that the goose receives different treatment than the gander,” he says. “While we cannot know if this midstream shift during a war is another factor prompting the Iranians to continue fighting, there is legitimate cause for concern.”

Mr. Sokolski notes that the Saudi nuclear deal evokes the specter of an “arc of anguish” comprising nuclear and aspiring nuclear powers across the greater Middle East, adding that Iran is undoubtedly contemplating this future as it evaluates its next moves in the conflict.

Mark Schiefelbein/AP/File

President Donald Trump stands alongside Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his visit to the White House, on November 18, 2025, in Washington.

Extended military deployments into 2027

Compounding these issues are signals from the Trump administration indicating it no longer views the Iranian leadership as a viable negotiating partner. Citing Energy Secretary Wright’s statement that a nuclear agreement “may await a next administration in Iran,” Dr. Parsi asserts that “there is no way the Iranians interpret that any other way than regime change. Consequently, it provides even more reason to pursue the war.”

President Trump told journalists on Wednesday that he now expects the war to persist through the midterm elections—an escalation he attributes to Iran’s desire to undermine Republican prospects among voters dissatisfied with the war’s economic fallout, particularly rising gas prices.

He also predicted the conflict would cease “immediately” following the elections, reasoning that a depleted Iran would no longer possess the capacity to fight.

However, this prediction contradicts recent remarks from unnamed administration officials who claim the White House is actually considering escalating the war with renewed infrastructure bombing—and potentially even a ground offensive to seize an Iranian island or other territory—once the midterms conclude.

As a sign of preparation for such an option, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently extended the deployments of warship crews, air-defense units, and paratroopers into 2027.

Perhaps the most certain conclusion the Iranians have reached after six months of war with the U.S. and the Saudi nuclear deal is that they require a nuclear weapon for their security and survival, says Mr. Sokolski.

“The Iranians did not acquire a bomb over the decades of their nuclear program,” he says, “but now we are rapidly stripping away the reasons they might continue to hold off.”

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