Washington Develops Post-War Strategy to Reshape Middle East Power Dynamics

The Trump administration has initiated the development of a comprehensive post-war strategy for the Middle East. The objective is to alter the regional balance of power by intensifying pressure on Tehran and advancing normalization efforts between Israel and its neighboring nations, according to Axios, citing US officials and other informed sources.

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According to the US outlet, the initiative is currently in its early stages but has the potential to establish the American approach to the Middle East for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s time in the White House.

Sources speaking to Axios indicated that the proposed plan revolves around three primary pillars: fostering “regional alignment” among US allies to deter and restrict Iran, mitigating the regional fallout from the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, and expanding the Abraham Accords while pursuing normalized relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Negotiations regarding the strategy—which could be influenced by the upcoming US midterm elections and Israel’s legislative elections in October—have also explored the US assuming a guarantor role for the regional alignment, brokering a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and executing the subsequent phases of Trump’s Gaza proposal.

This regional alignment approach does not signify a drastic departure from existing US policy. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, successive administrations have consistently attempted to curtail Tehran’s influence by fortifying alliances with Gulf states.

However, Washington now aims to transition these efforts into a more formalized framework. This would encompass enhanced defense and security coordination among allied nations, responding to what the US perceives as a shifting regional power balance amidst the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Efforts to secure a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel represent a long-standing objective for Washington. Nevertheless, this process has stalled, as Riyadh conditions any such advancement on concrete progress toward resolving the Gaza crisis and establishing a Palestinian state.

These endeavors build upon the Abraham Accords, established in 2020 during Trump’s first term, which normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.

Subsequently, Washington has actively sought to expand the coalition of nations participating in these agreements, viewing them as a critical mechanism for reshaping Middle Eastern alliances and diminishing the influence of Iran and its regional proxies.

The second pillar of the strategy, focused on managing the regional consequences of the October 7 attacks by Hamas and the subsequent conflict in the Gaza Strip, may be addressed through three main avenues.

First, advancing to the next phase of Trump’s Gaza initiative, which prior reports suggest includes the reconstruction of the Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, and the formation of a transitional government.

Second, striving for a security agreement between Israel and Syria. This would occur against the backdrop of significant political transformations in Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, along with the new leadership’s endeavors to redefine the nation’s regional and global standing.

Third, enforcing an agreement between Israel and Lebanon intended to constrain Hezbollah’s military capabilities. This aligns with the ceasefire agreement reached in 2024, which mandated the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the southern region.

Despite the ceasefire, Israel has alleged that Hezbollah is attempting to reconstitute its military strength, while Lebanon continues to report Israeli airstrikes within its borders.

A Definitive Plan Remains in Development

Although planning is ongoing, one source informed Axios that the strategy has not yet fully materialized.

“They are cooking it, but it is not yet cooked,” the source remarked, adding, “The idea is to tie a whole lot of things in the region together — how you create a regional alignment after the war. It is still unclear if all U.S. allies in the region will be on board.”

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