Wheat Futures Decline Friday After USDA Boosts Global Carryout Forecast

Wheat futures traded lower across all three major markets on Friday. Chicago SRW contracts fell 13 to 18¼ cents at midday, while Kansas City HRW futures dropped 17 to 26 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat contracts were also under pressure, declining 13 to 16 cents.

As anticipated, the USDA left U.S. production estimates unchanged pending the Small Grains Summary on September 30. The domestic balance sheet remained steady, with ending stocks held at 717 million bushels.

Globally, the agency raised wheat carryout by 3.04 million metric tons to 276.29 million tons. The increase came despite a combined 4 million-ton reduction in Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts, offset by a 3 million-ton production increase for Australia and a 1 million-ton rise for Canada.

Weekly export sales data, delayed until Friday due to the Monday holiday, showed 2025/26 wheat sales of just 194,233 metric tons for the week ending September 3. The figure fell short of trade expectations of 250,000 to 500,000 tons, representing a 37.6% decline from the prior week and a 36.4% drop year-over-year.

Key midday prices included:

• Sep 2025 CBOT Wheat: $7.13½, down 9¾ cents
• Dec 2025 CBOT Wheat: $7.23, down 18¼ cents
• Sep 2025 KCBT Wheat: $8.04¼, up 12½ cents
• Dec 2025 KCBT Wheat: $7.93½, down 25¼ cents
• Sep 2025 MGEX Wheat: $7.42¾, up 15¾ cents
• Dec 2025 MGEX Wheat: $7.48¾, down 13¾ cents

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