Wheat Futures EndMixed Amid Weather Shifts and Export Outlook

The wheat market exhibited mixed movements on Tuesday. Chicago SRW futures rose between half a cent and two cents in the near‑term contracts, while other contracts slipped by a quarter to 1.5 cents. Kansas HRW futures posted modest gains of fractional to 1.5 cents across the board. Minneapolis spring wheat contracts declined by 0.75 to 2 cents.

According to the latest NASS Crop Progress report, 92% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was headed out by Sunday, which is 7 percentage points ahead of the typical schedule. Harvest progress accelerated to 11%, surpassing the usual 6% pace for this time of year. Overall crop condition slipped by 1% to 25% rated as good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index falling from 263 to 257. The average Brugler500 for the five HRW‑producing states hit a record low of 211, while SRW states averaged 362.

Spring wheat planting reached 98% of the intended area, 3 percentage points ahead of normal expectations. Emergence was recorded at 87%, also 7% faster than average. Spring wheat conditions improved to 52% good to excellent, an increase of 5 points, and the Brugler500 index rose 7 points to 350. The only state showing a decline was Washington, which fell by 3 points; Montana increased by 13 points and Minnesota rose by 9 points.

Harvest activity in much of the Southern Plains is likely to be limited over the next week, as NOAA forecasts 1 to 3 inches of precipitation across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

Wheat production estimates will be updated on Thursday with the monthly Crop Production report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate U.S. wheat production of 1.555 billion bushels. The average projection for winter wheat heat units stands at 1.04 billion bushels, which would represent an 8‑million‑bushel reduction if realized. Hard Red Winter (HRW) production is expected to decline by 7 million bushels to 508 million, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) is projected to rise by 1 million bushels to 302 million.

The European Commission estimates EU wheat exports from July 1 through June 7 at 22.05 million metric tons, which is 1.53 million metric tons higher than the same period last year.

On July 26, CBOT wheat settled at $5.85¼, up 2 cents. The September 26 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.96¾, up 1 cent. On the same dates, KCBT wheat closed at $6.30¾, up 1 cent, and $6.40¼, up half a cent. MIAX wheat futures settled at $6.18½ on July 26, down 2 cents, while the September 26 MIAX contract closed at $6.43¼, down 1¾ cents.

Source link