Why Joby Aviation’s 54% Decline Could Create an Opportunity by 2027

Joby Aviation stands among the U.S. companies closest to commercializing electric air-taxi service through its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Even so, its stock has moved sharply lower in a market that remains at historically elevated valuation levels.

Joby’s decline of more than half this year likely reflects several overlapping pressures rather than one isolated problem. Persistent cash losses, share dilution, rising operating expenses, uncertainty surrounding FAA type certification, and an ambitious valuation have all weighed on investor sentiment. Broader challenges—including stubborn inflation, higher bond yields, geopolitical instability, and a recent interest-rate increase—have made speculative growth stocks such as Joby less appealing.

Joby is unlikely to appeal to investors seeking a stable, low-volatility investment. However, those with a long time horizon and a willingness to accept substantial downside may want to keep the company on their watch list as 2027 approaches.

Joby may be nearing its first commercial flights

Joby has spent years developing its own eVTOL aircraft for passenger routes that are often congested with road traffic. The company is focusing on time-sensitive corridors such as New York City, where saving roughly an hour in the air could justify a premium fare.

Fare levels remain unknown because Joby is still awaiting government approval to carry paying passengers. The company is nevertheless scheduled to begin operations across 11 states in 2026, ahead of receiving full FAA type certification.

These pre-certification flights could provide Joby with valuable real-world operating experience. The program is expected to evolve from pilot-only flights to nonpaying passengers and, ultimately, fare-paying customers.

That final stage is the key milestone. If development and certification proceed as planned, Joby could begin carrying paying passengers as early as 2027.

Cash consumption remains a significant concern

Revenue from early eIPP flights is likely to remain modest relative to Joby’s cash consumption. Even so, the company is no longer a pre-revenue business.

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Joby expects total revenue of $115 million to $125 million this year, driven largely by Blade Air Mobility, which generated approximately $36 million in revenue during the latest quarter. Joby also plans to acquire Resonant Sciences, a defense business that recently reported more than $100 million in trailing revenue.

Revenue from Blade, Resonant Sciences, and pre-certification passenger flights could help offset Joby’s substantial cash losses. Analysts now expect the company’s revenue base to approach $500 million by 2028.

YCharts

Investors with a shorter time horizon may still find Joby difficult to support. Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money, has expressed similar caution: “I’ve been against Joby because it’s losing a lot of money…. It’s an interesting spec, but I would not put my money in it.”

Current cash losses may be too concerning for some investors. For those willing to wait through the company’s development period, acquiring shares after this year’s steep selloff could prove advantageous if Joby reaches its 2027 milestones.

Should investors consider Joby Aviation shares now?

Before buying Joby Aviation stock, investors should weigh both the potential upside and the company’s substantial execution risks.

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