September is almost here, which means it is the perfect time to look ahead at the challenging road for every team still harboring playoff hopes.
While the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves hold comfortable leads atop their respective National League divisions, the American League races are far tighter. In the AL West, the Astros hold a two-game lead over the Rangers; in the AL Central, the White Sox lead the Guardians by 3.5 games; and in the AL East, the Rays boast a 4.5-game advantage over the Yankees.
In the National League wild-card race, the Diamondbacks and Padres are currently battling for the final spot, with the Marlins trailing them by a few games. Meanwhile, in the American League, a tightly contested battle is underway as four teams—the Guardians, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers—are separated by just two games for the final playoff slot.
At this point in the season, strength of schedule often proves decisive in determining who secures a postseason berth and who misses out. Therefore, in this week’s Power Rankings, we focus on the difficulty of every team’s September schedule.
The Angels have the opportunity to finish the season on a strong note, closing out against the Nationals, Mariners, Twins, Athletics, and the Mariners once more. If they manage to steal a series from Seattle, it could severely damage the Mariners’ postseason hopes.
The Rockies will close the season with series against the Padres, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and White Sox—all of which are teams fighting for either a playoff spot or a division title.
The Athletics still face the Mariners six times, the Astros four times, and the Rangers three times. With all of those teams vying for the division title, Oakland’s performance down the stretch could significantly shape the AL West playoff picture.
There remains a possibility that the Giants could finish behind the Rockies in the NL West, despite currently holding a four-game lead. Such an outcome would mark a particularly ignominious conclusion to manager Tony Vitello’s inaugural season. Nine of the Giants’ final 15 games are slated against the Padres and Dodgers, so they must avoid getting trampled during this difficult stretch to ensure they do not finish last.
The Mets have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler in several playoff races, with upcoming matchups against the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, and Rangers before closing out the year in Washington.
Despite just upsetting the Cubs at Wrigley Field, there is no time for the Reds to rest. They face the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league: seven games against the Dodgers, six against the Brewers, and three games each against the Padres, Cubs, Braves, and Blue Jays. Best of luck indeed.
The Royals have won 12 of their past 14 games, but unfortunately for Kansas City, the first four months of the season still weigh heavily in the standings. They face one of the more challenging remaining schedules among AL Central clubs, making it intriguing to see if they can sustain this momentum in September and act as a nuisance to contenders.
The Tigers have an easy road ahead, featuring six games against the Twins and three games each against the Rockies, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Pirates. However, this favorable schedule likely matters little after dropping 12 of their past 15 games and falling further out of playoff contention.
The Twins have dropped 17 of their past 26 games, yet remarkably still possess a fighting chance of sneaking into a final wild-card spot. Each of their next 12 games will come against AL Central competitors—six against Detroit, and three each against the White Sox and Guardians—meaning they must turn things around soon. They do, however, get to face the Angels four times and the Giants three times before the season concludes.
The Mariners are once again struggling to score runs, but they boast the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, including 14 games against the Athletics and Angels, plus three against the Rockies. Thus, despite their struggles, they should remain relevant in the AL West race until the very end.
While a surprise playoff run now appears out of reach, if James Wood returns from his oblique strain soon, the Nationals could still make life difficult in September for the Dodgers, Padres, and Phillies over the next couple of weeks. Washington then has a chance to finish the season on a high note, closing out against the Cardinals, Tigers, and Mets.
Nationals All-Star James Wood, who has been out with an oblique strain since early August, has started a minor-league rehab assignment. (Photo by JC Ruiz/Getty Images)
After dropping both of their series against the White Sox and Brewers last week, the Rangers could desperately use a turnaround this week against the Athletics upon returning home. Following that, they will face the Rays, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox before the September schedule eases up at the end against the Blue Jays, Mets, and Twins.
The Cardinals still have two series against the Giants, as well as matchups against the Rockies and Nationals, before the season ends. However, they missed a massive opportunity to jump over .500 and climb back into the wild-card race after losing series to the Orioles and Pirates this week.
The Pirates might be able to work their way back to .500 soon. They host the Giants and Angels this week after winning back-to-back series last week in San Diego and St. Louis. Still, it is likely too little, too late. If they can somehow find their way back into the race late in the season, they will close out with winnable matchups against the Royals, Cardinals, and Tigers.
The Orioles are just one game back of a wild-card spot, but FanGraphs gives them only a 21.2% chance of making the playoffs. The road ahead is not particularly easy. They have six more games against a Blue Jays team also vying for the final AL playoff spot, plus matchups against the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, and Yankees. They will need to take care of business in Colorado and Queens in September.
The Blue Jays have a legitimate shot here. They are only 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot after sweeping the Mariners this weekend. And after starting this week in Cleveland, every other team the Blue Jays face the rest of the way currently holds a losing record.
The Marlins are trending in the wrong direction at the absolute worst time. If they somehow bounce back and find a way to capture the final wild-card spot—currently sitting 3.5 games back—they will have truly earned it. They still face the Dodgers, Padres, D-backs, and Braves, plus six games against the Cubs.
Firing their general manager and subsequently winning the division might be the only fitting way for this AL West race to conclude. The Astros had a stellar week in New York and are now in the driver’s seat in the division, but the road ahead is far more treacherous for them than for the rivals they are trying to hold off. Their next four series are against the White Sox, D-backs, Phillies, and Rays, and they still face the Braves later on. The Royals are no longer a pushover, either.
Yordan Alvarez and the Astros are in the driver’s seat in their division, and he still has a great shot at winning the triple crown in the American League. (Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images)
The Guardians had been taking care of business against the teams they were supposed to beat until dropping a series this weekend to the suddenly red-hot Royals. Luckily for Cleveland, their September schedule does not get much more challenging. The only teams over .500 that the Guardians will face are the White Sox and Red Sox.
After dropping five of their last six games, the Padres would not make the playoffs if the season ended today. Of course, they are still very much in the race, and they possess one of the easiest remaining schedules among National League teams. However, they must take care of business against the Reds, Nationals, Giants, and Rockies before closing out the season with a massive week against the Dodgers and D-backs.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres have struggled lately, but they have one of the NL’s easiest schedules in September. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Diamondbacks and Padres will continue to battle for the final wild-card spot down the stretch. Arizona faces the harder road of the two teams, with upcoming matchups this week against the Phillies and Astros, plus another against the Yankees before the season ends. They will need to rack up wins against the Royals, Rangers, Marlins, and Rockies before what should be a consequential and captivating final series of the year in San Diego.
The Red Sox are once again struggling to score, but Roman Anthony and Trevor Story each delivered two hits in their return to action on Sunday. A division title is highly unlikely—FanGraphs gives them less than a 1% chance of winning the AL East—but they are in a strong position to secure a wild-card spot. They have a winnable stretch ahead against the Mariners, Orioles, Angels, Royals, and Rangers before facing a tough finish against the Rays, Guardians, and Cubs.
Roman Anthony had two hits on Sunday in his return to action from a finger injury that kept him out since early May. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The White Sox hold a 3.5-game lead over the Guardians, which is highly significant considering both teams have relatively easy roads ahead. The White Sox still get to face the Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, Pirates, and Cardinals before the season ends. A three-game series in Cleveland starting September 14 will certainly be one to watch.
It would take a significant collapse for the Phillies to miss the playoffs at this point, though winning the division remains a long shot. They will have a chance to chip into the Braves’ five-game lead by facing Atlanta seven times over a 10-day span starting this weekend. It is a tough road ahead for the Phillies, who also have to face the Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Rays.
A division title is looking increasingly out of reach, as the Cubs are now eight games back of the Brewers after dropping series to the Diamondbacks and Reds last week. They still hold the top wild-card spot, but they face a difficult road ahead, starting with seven games against Milwaukee over the next 10 days. While they do get to face the Pirates and Reds in September, matchups against the Braves and Red Sox also await.
After winning the series against the Red Sox this weekend, the schedule eases up significantly for the Yankees, who have a chance in early September to begin putting pressure on the first-place Rays. The Yankees head to Anaheim and San Diego next before facing the Rockies, Mets, Twins, and Diamondbacks. If they have gained ground by then, it could set up a pivotal four-game series with Tampa Bay to kick off the final week of the regular season.
The Dodgers are still not playing their best baseball, particularly against quality opponents, yet they hold the largest division lead in baseball at 9.5 games and possess one of the easiest September schedules in the sport. The only teams currently holding a winning record that they will face the rest of the way are the Marlins and Padres.
The Rays have built a comfortable cushion atop the AL East after sweeping the Padres over the weekend, but they will need to keep it going this week against the Mets and Rangers if they want to feel secure. They still face the Braves, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies before the season concludes.
Sweeping the Dodgers was incredibly important for a multitude of reasons. It secured the Braves the tiebreaker over Los Angeles, moved them closer to securing a first-round bye, bought them more cushion ahead of the surging Phillies in the NL East race, and provided some crucial momentum entering a much more difficult stretch of baseball ahead. The Braves still have to play the Phillies seven times, as well as the Rays, Cubs, and Astros three times apiece.
It would take a colossal collapse for the Brewers to lose the division at this point. They have seven more games against the Cubs, but they also face six against the Reds, and four of the last five teams they face to close the year have a losing record. The Brewers could be headed toward their first-ever 100-win season, in addition to securing their fourth consecutive division title.
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