Assessing Africa’s Preparedness for the Approaching El Niño Impacts

The FAO and WFP have launched an appeal for more than $200 million to safeguard 8.8 million people in 22 nations most vulnerable to the impending El Niño phenomenon.

The assistance package will comprise cash transfers, drought‑tolerant seeds, livestock safeguards and flood‑mitigation initiatives, responding to the already‑evident impacts of extreme weather worldwide.

“El Niño conditions have emerged in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify over the coming months, raising the risk of extreme weather across many regions,” warned the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

In Africa, the nations identified as facing the greatest risk are Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Severe drought in Zimbabwe threatens millions with hunger

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El Nino: What it means for Africa

El Niño is a natural warming of sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that recurs roughly every two to seven years.

The phenomenon typically persists for nine to twelve months; in certain areas it yields hotter, drier weather, whereas elsewhere it brings heavier rain and flooding.

“For Africa, the effects are not uniform; they will be far more diverse,” explains Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, a research officer with the Climate Risk and Human Security Project at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa.

Southern Africa has previously endured hotter, much drier conditions during El Niño episodes, she notes, heightening the threat of drought, water scarcity and widespread food insecurity.

In Eastern Africa, however, the outlook is more nuanced, since El Niño’s influence varies with the season.

Are African nations underestimating the risks of El Nino?

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Global warming: from bad to worse

Bhargabi Bharadwaj, a research associate at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, observes that El Niño reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, although its effects differ by region and season.

“Some regions will experience drier conditions, raising the risk of drought and wildfires, while others will see wetter weather that heightens the chance of storms and flooding,” Bharadwaj emphasizes.

Scientists such as Bharadwaj contend that climate change does not trigger El Niño directly, but it can intensify its impacts.

“With baseline temperatures already about 1.4 °C above pre‑industrial levels, any El Niño episode is likely to produce more extreme outcomes,” Bharadwaj told DW.

Some experts also warn that a particularly strong—or ‘super’—El Niño could develop this year, with average temperature anomalies projected to reach roughly two degrees Celsius.

Acting before disaster strikes

The core challenge lies in whether governments and humanitarian agencies can respond swiftly enough, given that scientific understanding often outpaces policy— as Bharadwaj puts it, “science is ahead of policy.”

In northern Kenya, Abdikadir Aden Hassan, founder of Garissa Million Trees, cautioned that the threat extends beyond heavy rains and flooding; it also stems from the likelihood that such downpours will follow prolonged dry periods.

“We are currently experiencing a dry spell that is likely to deepen into drought by August and September,” he told DW. “Come October through December, the short rains are expected. Communities emerging from drought could be plunged straight into flash floods, jeopardizing their livelihoods a second time,” Hassan explained.

Given that lives and livelihoods hang in the balance, experts maintain that Africa’s climate readiness must extend beyond environment ministries alone.

“It needs to be integrated across agriculture, health, water, energy, education and social protection,” Mkumbeni told DW.

Climate-linked displacement

Conflicts, rising energy costs, debt pressures, fertilizer supply disruptions and reductions in international aid are already eroding many nations’ capacity to cope with external shocks. Bharadwaj warns that this context makes the 2026 outlook especially concerning.

“The worry extends beyond El Niño itself; it stems from the fact that the global system is already fragile. Many vulnerable populations reside in areas where import costs and debt levels are both high,” she told DW.

Aimee‑Noel Mbiyozo, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, points out that climate‑related events are already displacing people from their homes.

“Cyclones and floods have been the primary drivers of mass displacement across Africa. Drought also contributes, though its impact tends to unfold more gradually,” she highlights.

“People generally prefer to remain in their homes; most would rather stay where they are.”

Cities on the frontline of climate crises

Drought and desertification are pushing growing numbers of people toward Africa’s urban centers, which must absorb climate‑driven migration while grappling with challenges such as housing shortages, strained public services and informal employment.

“Whether the shift is abrupt, gradual or tied to overall population growth, the majority of this movement is directed toward urban areas,” Mbiyozo emphasizes.

The World Bank estimates that climate change alone could push as many as 86 million additional internally displaced persons into African cities by 2050.

Particular concern for Lake Chad and southern Africa

In the fragile Lake Chad Basin, analysis of displacement trends from 2008 to 2024 shows that disasters have uprooted more people than conflict and violence, Mbiyozo explains, adding that violence is increasingly overlapping with these disasters.

She characterizes the region as a perfect storm, where borderland fragility, violent extremism, pastoralism and climate shocks converge.

Southern Africa also raises serious concerns. The region has endured recurring cycles of drought and cyclones, with Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Madagascar repeatedly impacted in recent years.

“Madagascar is now struck by cyclones on an almost annual basis,” Mbiyozo notes, adding that Mozambique has repeatedly confronted cyclones of unprecedented intensity in recent years.

Are early warning mechanisms enough?

Several nations have improved their preparedness: Mozambique has invested in early‑warning systems and climate‑literacy programs for coastal communities, while South Africa has enacted a Climate Change Act that experts regard as a constructive legislative move.

Kenya has strengthened coordination among government agencies and humanitarian groups, establishing emergency operation centers and relocating residents from flood‑prone zones to higher ground, according to Hassan.

“As a nation, we are currently better off and far more organized,” he told DW. “However, without external assistance, the national emergency funds may prove insufficient.”

He argues that early‑warning systems must be paired with readily available funds; otherwise, even allocated money can lose its effectiveness if disbursement is delayed, worsening the disaster.

How do El Nino and La Nina come about?

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Cai Nebe Contributed to this article
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson

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