Recent polling indicates a closely contested presidential race in Brazil on Sunday, with leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth non-consecutive term and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro aiming to continue the right-wing populist movement founded by his father, Jair Bolsonaro.
The two leading candidates wrapped up their campaigns on Saturday in Brazil’s economic powerhouse state of Sao Paulo.
Lula pledges to “defeat the far-right”
The 80-year-old Lula concluded his campaign with a tour through the city of Sao Paulo, vowing to “defeat the far right” and framing the election as a choice between “democracy and sovereignty” and “barbarism and corruption.” Organizers reported that approximately 150,000 of Lula’s supporters attended the rally in Brazil’s largest city.
Lula has campaigned on continuing his left-leaning Workers’ Party platform, comprising welfare programs, state-funded development, and income redistribution.
Bolsonaro emphasizes law and order
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has served as the Liberal Party’s senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. On Saturday, he led a motorcycle parade through Sao Paulo’s countryside municipalities of Santa Barbara d’Oeste and Americana.
The right-wing candidate has campaigned on hardline security policies and tax cuts, emphasizing the high cost of living under Lula, who he has criticized as “incompetent.”
“I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round,” the lawmaker said.
He also held up a portrait of his father, while the crowd shouted “mito” — a Portuguese word for “legend” that Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters use to refer to him.
A rematch of Brazil’s 2022 contest
The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence in prison for attempting a coup to overturn his loss to Lula in the 2022 presidential election. Flavio Bolsonaro has vowed to pardon his father if elected.
Lula’s team has characterized the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil’s sovereignty, pointing to Flavio and Jair’s ties with U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial, which the U.S. president called a “witch hunt.”
The younger Bolsonaro has said in interviews he is “more moderate” than his father, who he has nevertheless described as remaining “my compass, my point of reference.”
Policies where both Bolsonaros are similar include relaxed gun control laws and skepticism of human-caused climate change.
Trump has not endorsed the senator, but has said he is watching the election “very closely.”
What happens next?
Brazil finds itself politically divided, and campaigning has been bitter, with online operations from both sides seizing on every gaffe, accusation, and rumor, quickly producing slick videos or AI-generated images for social media.
In September, it was revealed Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion tied to the financing of a biopic about his father. He has denied any misconduct.
Who is Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro?
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Polls indicate neither candidate is likely to win more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday needed to avoid a runoff that would take place on October 25.
The latest polling for the first round of voting shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, according to the Brazilian data intelligence and public opinion research firm Quaest cited by Reuters news agency.
In the case of a run-off, the Quaest poll shows Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by only 1.8 percentage points.
Along with voting for president, Brazil’s 160 million registered voters are also choosing other lawmakers, governors, and some senators.
Brazil election: Lula, Bolsonaro focus on women’s vote
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