D-Wave Quantum’s Road to Tripling Revenue by 2030 Hinges on a Surging Order Book

Key Points

• First-half 2026 revenue declined 67% year over year to $5.9 million.

• First-half bookings of $35.5 million exceeded the company’s total revenue for all of 2025.

• Even with revenue tripled, the stock would still trade at roughly 90 times sales.

Quantum computing companies are beginning to generate meaningful revenue. IonQ (NYSE:IONQ), for example, raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $450 million to $460 million ahead of its first joint investor day on Tuesday — bolstered by the addition of SkyWater Technology, the chipmaking business it acquired at the end of July.

D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) is at a considerably earlier stage. The quantum computing specialist reported that first-half 2026 revenue fell 67% year over year to $5.9 million.

Image source: Getty Images.

A Lumpy Revenue Base

D-Wave’s full-year 2025 revenue totaled $24.6 million, a 179% increase from $8.8 million in 2024. That surge, however, depended heavily on a single transaction: the company’s first-ever sale of an annealing quantum computing system, which contributed $12.6 million to first-quarter 2025 revenue. Once 2026 lapped that deal, the year-over-year comparisons turned unfavorable. Revenue dropped 81% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, and the second quarter was essentially flat at $3.1 million.

Setting that system sale aside, the ongoing business — primarily selling access to D-Wave’s machines via the cloud — still produces only a few million dollars per quarter. Any credible forecast must begin with a base that is both small and volatile.

The Order Book Is Soaring

Bookings, which capture the value of contracts signed during the period, reached $35.5 million in the first half of 2026 — up from just $2.9 million a year earlier. Notably, that six-month figure alone exceeded the company’s revenue for all of 2025.

The total included a $20 million system purchase by Florida Atlantic University and a $10 million, two-year cloud-access agreement with a Fortune 100 company.

Signed contracts accumulate as remaining performance obligations — revenue customers have committed to but D-Wave has not yet delivered. That backlog stood at just $5.3 million a year ago; as of June 30, it reached $40.7 million. The company expects approximately 57% of that backlog to convert to revenue within the next 12 months, with 72% arriving within two years.

An inflection point on the calendar also appears likely. D-Wave anticipates installation of the Florida Atlantic system will begin before the end of 2026 — and 2025 demonstrated what a single delivered system can do for the revenue line.

Meanwhile, the company can afford to be patient. Operating expenses are running well ahead of revenue — up 93% year over year to $55 million in the second quarter — but D-Wave held approximately $550 million in cash and marketable securities as of June 30.

Additionally, on Tuesday, D-Wave announced it had finalized an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce providing access to up to $100 million in CHIPS and Science Act funding for research and development. In exchange, the government will receive a minority equity stake.

What Would Tripling Be Worth?

The math is straightforward: tripling 2025’s $24.6 million would bring annual revenue to roughly $74 million by 2029, the last full year before 2030. If the Florida Atlantic system is delivered in time to keep 2026 near last year’s level, the following three years would require approximately 44% annual growth.

That is a demanding pace for a company whose sales recently contracted. However, the $35.5 million in first-half bookings illustrates what the demand side can deliver, and a single system sale can move an entire year’s revenue. A couple more deals on the scale of the Florida Atlantic contract, layered onto a growing cloud business, could close most of the remaining gap.

Reaching that level would not make the stock cheap. With a market capitalization of about $6.6 billion, D-Wave would still trade at roughly 90 times sales against the 2029 revenue forecast. For comparison, IonQ — hardly a bargain itself — is valued at about 56 times the revenue its quantum business is guided to produce this year.

So, will D-Wave’s revenue triple before 2030? The order book points toward yes, even if quarterly results remain uneven in the interim.

Ultimately, though, a tripled D-Wave would still be a $74 million revenue company carrying a multibillion-dollar valuation. The business appears to be moving in the right direction, but at this price, investors may prefer to stay on the sidelines.

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