Early Vote Count Places Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of Lula in Brazil’s Tight Presidential Race

BRASÍLIA/SÃO PAULO — Senator Flavio Bolsonaro secured a narrow early advantage as Brazil began reporting results Sunday afternoon for the first round of a closely contested presidential election. The campaign has been defined by corruption scandals, economic anxiety, and accusations of foreign interference.

The field of 13 candidates has narrowed to two primary frontrunners: 80-year-old leftist incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term, and Flavio, 45, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who aims to restore his family’s right-wing movement to power.

Among the approximately 11 percent of votes reported so far, Flavio held 51.09 percent, edging ahead of the president’s 40.67 percent.

The early tally reflects reporting patterns from southern states, which tend to lean conservative and report results faster, while ballots from Lula’s northeastern stronghold are typically counted later.

If no candidate surpasses 50 percent of valid votes, the top two will compete in a runoff on October 25. Recent surveys suggest Lula and Flavio are statistically tied in a potential second round.

A win for the senator would extend a wave of right-wing victories across Latin America aligned with former US President Donald Trump, whereas Lula’s re-election could complicate relations with Washington, which has recently clashed with his administration over trade and security.

Despite mounting concerns over public finances and sluggish growth, the campaign offered little substantive policy debate, as both leading candidates declined to participate in major televised debates.

Undecided voters

While polls leading up to Saturday indicated Lula would likely win the first round outright, Flavio told reporters in Rio de Janeiro he remained confident of a first-round victory, citing voter frustration with his chief opponent.

Flavio is counting on a protest vote from supporters of other candidates who oppose Lula. “I hope it’s enough to secure a victory in the first round,” he said.

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer casting her ballot in São Paulo, said her primary objective was removing Lula’s Workers’ Party from power. “I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes,” she said, noting she wished psychiatrist Augusto Cury were a more viable option.

Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Flavio, though he had initially planned to back Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais.

Outside interference

Conversely, Lula’s allies have warned the Trump administration could refuse to recognize election results if he wins, citing an aborted attempt to send US officials to Brazil. “What is at stake is the future of Brazil,” Lula said after voting in São Bernardo do Campo.

Trump has not formally endorsed any candidate, though he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

“I’m a little worried about everything that’s been happening recently, including internationally. I feel this election has had a lot of outside influence, more than in previous elections,” said Cristiano, 34, a Brasilia doctor who voted for Lula and requested anonymity.

Pedro Palacio, 45, told reporters he remains confident in Lula’s leadership regarding national sovereignty. He was voting in Brasilia with his wife, children, and dogs, all dressed in support of the president.

As of Sunday afternoon, the election was proceeding without incident, according to election court chief Kassio Nunes Marques. “Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever,” he stated at a press conference.

This follows a Reuters report from Wednesday alleging that Brazilian intelligence briefed a French and German delegation on suspected US and Russian interference prior to the vote. Washington has rejected claims of meddling in Brazil’s internal affairs.

Economic headwinds

Despite declines in inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to connect with voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt, and rising street crime and gang activity.

Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to exploit cost-of-living concerns, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare programs and proposed fresh debt relief for families.

Rising public spending and debt exceeding 82 percent of GDP have fueled fiscal concerns that the next president must address. The government has lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

“I voted for Brazil to start growing again,” said Marciano de Souza e Silva, a 52-year-old public servant in Brasilia and former Lula voter who shifted right, backing Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 before voting for Flavio on Sunday. “The best social program is one that encourages people to start businesses, to actually produce real wealth,” he added.

Scandal-plagued campaigns

Obscuring the policy discussion, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil’s political establishment, renewing public anger over corruption.

Daniel Vorcaro, the former bank head, was arrested earlier this year and accused of orchestrating a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation has probed Vorcaro’s connections ranging from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Flavio Bolsonaro, who is under federal police investigation for money laundering tied to the case.

The candidate denies any wrongdoing, though he acknowledged raising millions of dollars from Vorcaro to produce a film about his father.

Connections between the banker and Moraes, widely viewed as a Lula ally, plunged the court into crisis a month before the vote, creating fresh political challenges for the president. Moraes has maintained the case against him is politically motivated due to his role in convicting the elder Bolsonaro.

Voters on Sunday will also elect all 513 members of the lower house and two-thirds of the Senate, where some lawmakers have pushed to impeach Moraes.

Congress has assumed greater influence in Brazilian politics since the 2016 impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff, a Lula ally, raising the stakes of the upcoming legislative races.

Source link