Latvia Election Exit Polls Show PM’s Pro-European Party Leading Amid Populist Surge

Exit polls from Latvia’s parliamentary election indicate Prime Minister Andris Kubbergs’ united list party maintaining the country’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian trajectory, though coalition dynamics appear set to shift significantly.

According to exit polling by public media LSM, the prime minister’s center-right United List secured 35.6% of the vote, positioning it as the leading force in the upcoming parliamentary assembly.

“It’s not the end yet, but it’s higher than expected,” Kubbergs told reporters after the initial results were announced. “This shows people genuinely want change—economic growth and securing a future for Latvia’s children.” Kubbergs assumed the premiership in May.

However, his existing governing coalition appears unlikely to remain intact, with pre-election predictions suggesting several partners would struggle to meet the electoral threshold.

One key coalition partner, the Union of Greens and Farmers, appears to have garnered just 3.7%, falling short of the 5% minimum required for parliamentary representation. This setback, combined with projected results from other coalition members, strongly suggests Kubbergs will need to form an entirely new governing alliance.

“While exit polls generally provide reliable insights, voter hesitation in disclosing support for more radical parties could lead to better-than-anticipated performance from populist movements,” noted Roberts Kits, a political analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER.

“I believe the most significant divergence between exit poll projections and final results will emerge among parties supported by Russian-speaking constituents—specifically Sovereign Power and Latvia First,” Kits added.

Sigita Struberga, secretary general of the Latvian transatlantic forum LATO, cautioned against premature conclusions. “We must await the official results, which may differ slightly from these initial projections,” she emphasized.

Populist Momentum

Security issues dominated much of the electoral discourse in Latvia, a nation that is both an EU and NATO member situated on the alliance’s eastern frontier.

Nevertheless, populist parties gained traction by emphasizing domestic concerns like cost-of-living pressures in Latvia, the economically disadvantaged among the Baltic states.

Sovereign Power, criticized by opponents as being sympathetic to Russia, secured fourth place with 10.8% according to exit polls. The party has opposed additional military assistance to Ukraine and further increases in defense spending, instead focusing attention on internal economic challenges.

Despite gaining momentum, the party faces significant barriers to joining any governing coalition, as most major parties have explicitly ruled out cooperation with it.

Latvia First, another populist movement led by entrepreneur Ainars Slesers, achieved second place with 11.3% according to exit polls. Its leadership positions suggest greater viability as a potential governing partner.

The Progressive Alliance, a pro-European social democratic party advocating enhanced social protections and continued support for Ukraine, placed third with 11.1% in exit polling data.

Geopolitical and Economic Crosscurrents

Security concerns remain central to political dialogue nearly four years following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As a NATO and EU member since 2004, Latvia perceives Russia as its foremost security challenge and has substantially increased its defense expenditures in response.

Following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Kyiv, Latvia ramped up its defense budget, now allocating almost 5% of GDP toward national security—a substantial commitment relative to most Western allies.

Majority of parties anticipated to enter parliament support both escalating military preparedness and sustaining bilateral support for Kyiv.

Campaign rhetoric frequently addressed rising living expenses, stagnant wages, healthcare system pressures, and demographic decline across generations.

Electoral preferences among Latvia’s sizable Russian-speaking minority continue evolving, reflecting broader political realignments.

“As the external boundary of Europe, we require a robust economy, a strong Latgale region, and fortified border infrastructure,” Kubbergs emphasized. “This represents our primary responsibility.”

Official preliminary results are scheduled for release Sunday, after which focus will intensify toward coalition formation negotiations—processes likely to be protracted and intricate given the fragmented nature of the electoral outcome.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

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