Leaked Report Warns Majority of EU Counter-Drone Programs Will Miss 2030 Delivery Targets

Investment in counter-drone technology across the EU surged sixfold between 2024 and 2025, yet only a third of programmes are expected to deliver by 2030, according to a confidential EU report obtained by Euronews.

The 2026 annual defence readiness report, a European Defence Agency assessment of national military capabilities, exposes persistent gaps in Europe’s drone defences and urges member states to accelerate investment in both drone and counter-drone technology.

“Investment in counter-drone and very short-range air defence capabilities grew sixfold between 2024 and 2025 in response to the growing threat posed by unmanned systems, although only around one third of programmes are expected to deliver by 2030,” the report states, having been shared with European governments last week.

The EU’s eastern flank, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea, faces escalating drone threats, with some units straying from the conflict in Ukraine. On Tuesday, drones struck two commercial vessels in Bulgaria’s territorial waters, sinking one.

The EDA found that most member states are prioritising drones for surveillance, reconnaissance, and target acquisition, while other unmanned aircraft types continue to attract limited funding despite their expanding battlefield role.

EU countries are investing €18.9 billion in drone technologies over the 2024-2029 period, the report says.

“Despite the high level of attention paid to the acquisition of drone and counter-drone capabilities, significant capability gaps and external dependencies continue to affect overall European readiness,” the document continues.

Spain, Denmark, Croatia, Latvia, and the Netherlands are leading a joint EU project to procure drones and anti-drone systems collectively and establish a technology hub to centralise innovation and testing.

However, the EDA highlights significant shortcomings: procurement fragmented at the national level, limited interoperability, insufficient experimentation capacity, and a lack of industrial surge capacity, particularly for weaponised drones.

Closing these gaps would cost comparatively little relative to other defence capabilities, the report notes, but would require sustained funding and an agile, integrated approach.

“Industrial capacity has yet to reach the scale and responsiveness required for protracted high-intensity operations, as the pace of technological innovation is outstripping traditional acquisition cycles, creating a persistent risk that capabilities become obsolete before they can be fielded,” the report adds.

In essence, drone technology is evolving so rapidly that equipment risks becoming obsolete before it even reaches the battlefield.

The report acknowledges that current plans and programmes address these challenges but must be paired with adequate doctrine and training.

The EDA also identified more than 200 companies producing drone and counter-drone technologies in the EU, describing a dynamic but fragmented ecosystem that could expand by up to 140% by next year with the right investment framework.

“Industrial readiness in this sector requires agile production ecosystems maintained at the cutting edge of technologies and organised for rapid and massive scaling rather than building up large stockpiles,” the report reads.

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