Machado’s Return Stalled Amid US Skepticism

The opposition figure Maria Corina Machado has been preparing to return from the United States to Venezuela for months. After a pair of catastrophic earthquakes struck the La Guaira coastline in June, she saw an opportune moment. In a video address, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate accused Venezuela’s interim administration, headed by Delcy Rodríguez, of impeding relief efforts. Victims of the tremors and several aid groups have echoed her charges.

Machado filmed the message in Panama City, where she intended to board a flight to Venezuela. Insiders close to her said the Venezuelan authorities threatened the carrier with a landing ban should she be on the aircraft. Neither Copa Airlines nor the Venezuelan government has confirmed or denied the allegation.

The video did not reference an incident that The Wall Street Journal disclosed in early July. The newspaper reported that in June Machado attempted to fly from the United States to the Dutch‑controlled island of Curaçao on a private jet, then onward by boat to Venezuela. In December she had secretly taken the reverse route to board a flight to Oslo for the Nobel ceremony.

Machado was once viewed as the principal ally of the Venezuelan opposition to US President Donald Trump. A New York Times article on the split between her and the administration carried the headline: “US Undercuts Venezuela’s Opposition Leader as She Tries to Return.”

Machado seizes moment

Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group in Venezuela told DW that the US government does not regard Machado as a transitional figure. He noted one key reason: “She played a decisive role in the opposition’s 2024 victory, yet she is not a natural negotiator, and she struggles to reach agreements even within her own camp.”

Venezuela’s electoral commission announced that incumbent president Nicolás Maduro had won the 2024 election, a result that was contested both domestically and internationally. Observers pointed to opposition candidate Edmundo González as the clear victor. Machado had actively — and, according to many analysts, decisively — backed González during the campaign, despite having been barred from running by a court order.

On January 3, 2026, US forces apprehended Maduro and transported him to the United States. Since then, Delcy Rodríguez has served as Venezuela’s acting president.

Machado’s presidential ambitions have never been in doubt. However, the longer she remains abroad, the more she risks erosion of her popularity at home. The earthquake crisis presented what she perceived as the perfect opportunity to press forward with her return, even at the potential cost of alienating some of her US supporters.

‘They keep telling her, “This isn’t your time,”’ Gunson said. “She has repeatedly ignored that advice and pressed ahead with her own plan, eager to return.”

Venezuelans want elections — but when will they get them?

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US prioritizes stabilization

The US administration shows little appetite for installing Machado as Venezuela’s next president in the short term. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that, in his view, the democratization of other nations is subordinate to American interests. Accordingly, democratic elections rank near the bottom of Washington’s three‑point agenda for Venezuela: first stabilization, then reconstruction, and finally reconciliation and a democratic transition.

‘He doesn’t have a high regard for democracy,’ Gunson said. ‘He regards authoritarian rulers as much simpler and more efficient.’

The current plan amounts to an economic and commercial strategy that also aims to turn Venezuela into a reluctant US ally on the geopolitical front, Gunson said. In other words, it concerns Venezuela’s natural resources, investment opportunities for US companies and weakening China’s influence in the Americas.

US’s ‘fault lines’

The events of the past few days highlight not only the differences in priorities between Machado and the US government, but also tensions within the Trump administration. “Venezuela’s earthquakes are exposing the fault lines in US policy,” Benigno Alarcon Deza, a political scientist with the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello in Caracas, wrote in the magazine Americas Quarterly. Alarcon describes this as a break with the US’s long‑standing foreign policy, which, he writes, has been dedicated to weakening socialist governments since the Cold War. Now, Trump apparently seeks to “protect the remnants of Chavismo that he has chosen to leave intact,” Alarcon writes, referring to the left‑populist policies of the now‑deceased Hugo Chávez.

This is not surprising, given that Rubio is known for his commitment to transforming Venezuela and Cuba, his parents’ homeland, into US partners. Possibly with an eye on a 2028 presidential run, he has attempted to cultivate an image as an advocate of the rule of law, to the extent that his role as secretary of state allows, Tom Bateman, a BBC correspondent who covers the US State Department, said in a podcast. That is why he repeatedly distances himself from aspects of Trump’s foreign policy, such as his remarks regarding Greenland and strikes on drug‑trafficking boats in the Caribbean. “What he usually does is basically shift the blame onto Trump and clearly place the responsibility on him,” Bateman said.

For now, Machado remains one of Venezuela’s most prominent and popular opposition politicians. Still, her return at this point could further destabilize the country politically, Gunson said. In this regard, Trump’s decision not to allow Machado into Venezuela may indeed have been the right one, whatever the US president’s motives. “Washington’s rejection of approving Machado’s return at this moment, even if driven by self‑interest, is not necessarily a bad thing,” Gunson said. “The immediate focus should be rescue efforts; Machado’s interests are primarily political.”

Anger in Venezuela over earthquake response

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