Middle Eastern crude shipments climb above pre‑war volumes, Kpler data shows

IRGC commander downplays oil flow through US‑monitored Hormuz route as negligible.

Published On 5 Oct 20265 Oct 2026

Crude oil shipments from the Middle East topped pre‑war levels on four of the seven days in late September, according to provisional data from tracking firm Kpler.

Yet IRGC commander Ali Fadavi told a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels per day are currently moving through the corridor, which he dismissed as negligible compared with pre‑war volumes.

Fadavi added that, for the first time, no U.S. vessels were detected in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or the northern Indian Ocean, and he warned that American warships are now “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC strikes.

Kpler’s figures show that crude exports surpassed pre‑war benchmarks on September 24 and again from September 27‑29, reaching 19.5–22.5 million barrels per day.

Around the same period, Iran claimed responsibility for attacks on vessels—including U.S. Navy ships—near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes compelled Washington to pull its warships farther from Iran’s coastline.

Prior to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, Middle Eastern crude exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026.

According to Kpler, the combined volume of crude, refined products, chemicals and non‑gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day for the week ending September 30.

On October 1, the seven‑day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day, encompassing transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, terminal loadings and ship‑to‑ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Liquefied natural gas shipments leaving the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to their highest monthly level since February.

The data exclude any vessels that may have crossed the strait with their AIS transponders switched off to evade detection.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency logged at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden beginning October 2.

On Sunday, Iran’s chief negotiator and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until the United States agrees to Tehran’s seven‑day plan to reopen the waterway.

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