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    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

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    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Analyzing Recent Volatility And Key Levels

    USD/CHF’s protracted decline suggests a likely conclusion to its recovery from 0.7603, with three-wave upward movement reaching 0.8205. Intraday momentum has reverted to bearish, targeting renewed channel support currently positioned at 0.7921. A confirmed breakdown below this threshold would reinforce the bearish outlook, with subsequent focus on 0.7760 as the next critical support zone. Conversely, sustained strength above 0.8038 — previously support, now acting as resistance — would temporarily restore intraday neutrality before new directional signals emerge.

    In broader context, attention shifts to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level derived from the 2025 high at 0.9200 down to 0.7603, calculated at 0.8213. A decisive breach of this zone would imply a reversal of the medium-term downtrend, redirecting analysis toward 0.8332 — a former 2023 support level now functioning as resistance — for validation. Conversely, failure to surpass 0.8213 would preserve the prevailing bearish bias, potentially triggering renewed downside toward 0.7603 at a later stage.

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    Bessent’s Market Intervention: Can the Former Hedge Fund Manager Stabilize U.S. Treasury Yields?</TITLE]Could a man who once assisted George Soros in breaking the Bank of England apply that same strategic playbook to defend the U.S. Treasury market?Since the beginning of this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has executed a series of unexpected market maneuvers aimed at suppressing U.S. borrowing costs. According to Bloomberg, he has become “the most interventionist Treasury secretary in decades.”Following the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention in the yen, Bessent’s latest strategy involves expanding Treasury buybacks. The Treasury Department announced it would “at least double” the scale of buybacks for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds—a plan that had only been introduced two weeks prior. Following the announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by approximately 6 basis points, the 30-year yield dropped nearly 9 basis points, and the dollar index reached a three-month low.The market’s reaction appeared to validate Bessent’s strategy. He has publicly asserted, “My job is to be the country’s top bond salesman, and Treasury yields are the barometer of success.”From Sterling Speculator to Bond Market GuardianTo understand Bessent’s current strategy, one must look back to 1992.That year, a young Bessent was working at Soros Fund Management, contributing to the short position against the British pound. On “Black Wednesday,” the pound was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, resulting in a profit of over $1 billion for Soros. Media reports from the time described Bessent as an individual capable of “seeing market vulnerabilities others couldn’t.”He later returned to Soros as Chief Investment Officer, leading a $1 billion short position against the yen in 2013. In 2015, he founded Key Square Capital Management with $4.5 billion, successfully navigating bets on both Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election results.This predatory logic—identifying and exploiting market cracks—has defined his hedge fund career. Now, he is applying those same instincts to the opposite objective: defending a market under significant pressure.The 2024 Intervention Strategy: From Yen to TreasuriesBessent’s actions this year reflect a coordinated logic.First, the yen intervention: On July 31, the U.S. Treasury joined Japanese authorities in purchasing yen, marking the first direct U.S. intervention in the yen exchange rate in nearly thirty years. Data from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) shows that Japan utilized roughly $87 billion in foreign exchange reserves to support the yen during the final days of July, with the U.S. Treasury providing crucial political signaling. Notably, the Treasury opted to sell euros rather than dollars and did so without prior notification to Eurozone authorities.A strategic link exists here: Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, with holdings of approximately $1.1 trillion. If Japan had been forced to finance the intervention alone, it might have needed to sell Treasuries, which would have driven up long-end yields. Washington’s involvement allowed Japan to avoid such sales, indirectly stabilizing the yield curve.Second, signals of reduced issuance: Earlier this month, the Treasury suggested a potential reduction in long-term bond issuance, signaling a tightening of supply to the market.Third, expanded buybacks: This week, the department announced it would at least double its scale of long-dated Treasury buybacks, providing direct demand-side support for bond prices.Bloomberg noted that Brad Golding, a portfolio manager at Christofferson Robb & Co., views this as an “old-school ‘clearing the screen’ move”—a hedge fund technique used to trigger market moves by placing large orders with multiple dealers simultaneously.Mark Sobel, a former U.S. Treasury official currently at OMFIF, told Bloomberg, “He’s definitely an activist—it’s reminiscent of his hedge fund background. He and this administration are clearly concerned about rising long-end yields.”Departing from TraditionBessent’s strategy represents a departure from long-standing Treasury tradition.The U.S. Treasury has traditionally operated on the principle of “regular and predictable” debt management to avoid market surprises. While Bessent himself endorsed this principle last November, his recent actions have moved away from that commitment.Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, told Bloomberg, “This goes against the ‘egular and predictable’ principle—but this is the world we live in. The signal is clear: stop yields from rising.”The situation contains a layer of irony: Bessent’s predecessor, Janet Yellen, also adjusted debt issuance structures to manage yields in 2023—a tactic Bessent had criticized as politically motivated. Furthermore, Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini co-authored a 2024 paper criticizing “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI), warning that if one administration begins using ATI for economic stimulation, future administrations will likely follow.Can Intervention Resolve Structural Issues?While markets have reacted to Bessent’s moves, many economists remain skeptical regarding the long-term efficacy of these interventions.In the first ten months of fiscal 2026, net federal interest payments reached $963 billion—approximately $3.18 billion per day, a 14% increase year-over-year. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.72% and the 30-year at 5.31%, the government is rolling over significant volumes of low-interest debt into much higher-rate environments. The fiscal 2026 deficit currently stands at $1.8 trillion, up 5% from last year, driven by rising costs in Social Security, Medicare, defense, and debt interest.Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Bloomberg, “This isn’t solving the fundamental problem—cutting debt and reducing the fiscal deficit—it’s trying to manipulate the yield curve.”John Velis, a macro strategist at BNY, added that easing long-end pressure will be difficult given current spending and geopolitical conflicts.The effectiveness of the yen intervention remains debated. While USD/JPY fell from a peak of 163.98 on July 23 to 159.43 by August 17, CNBC reports that the intervention failed to halt the yen’s overall weakness. Maurice Obstfeld of the PIIE noted that such interventions are not a “free lunch.”Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance, told Bloomberg, “This approach only works for so long. While persistent intervention can have a strong effect, it is ultimately unsustainable without addressing profligate fiscal policy.”Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Onepoint Bfg, was more blunt: “He’s fighting two giant markets at once—Treasuries and FX—and that’s an extremely difficult battle.”A Bet on Market SignalsBessent’s underlying logic is evident in his own commentary. Discussing administration holdings last month, he stated, “What we’re trying to do is create market signals,” adding that the goal is to tell investors, “OK, where’s the puck going—skate there quickly.”The challenge is that while his 1992 strategy involved striking a single, decisive blow against a specific institutional weakness, he now faces systemic pressures—fiscal deficits, inflation expectations, and Fed policy—that cannot be resolved through buybacks or currency intervention alone.According to Bloomberg, Mark Sobel, a veteran of the Treasury for nearly 40 years, views Bessent as the most aggressive secretary since the early 2000s, while suggesting that the yen intervention may be unwise as it sidesteps the necessary fiscal consolidation required by the United States.

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